With the Leagues Cup having come to an end, it’s time for MLS teams to turn their attention back to domestic competition. That’s what will take place on Wednesday when FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami face off for a spot in the U.S. Open Cup final.
Cincinnati have been the best team in MLS for much of the season, and their two-headed monster of Brandon Vasquez and Luciano Acosta has put fear into every defense they’ve faced.
That’ll be key against Lionel Messi and Inter Miami, who are coming off winning their first trophy in club history and allowed just two goals over the final three matches of the competition.
Will Cincinnati hand Messi his first defeat since joining his new club, or will Inter Miami secure another cup final? I discuss that and more in my FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami betting picks for Wednesday, August 23.
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami best odds
 FC Cincinnati |
 Inter Miami |
|
|---|---|---|
| +230 | Moneyline | +105 |
| +275 | Draw | +275 |
| Over 2.5 (-200) | Total | Under 2.5 (+150) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 22, 2023.
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami picks and predictions
Get ready folks, because Inter Miami might be winning another trophy very soon.
Just a few days after hoisting the first-ever Leagues Cup trophy, Messi and friends are looking to reach the final of the oldest domestic soccer tournament in American history. And my best bet is for Miami to do just that.
While FC Cincinnati have been among the betting favorites to win the MLS Cup all season, they’ve not looked their best over the past two months. Their 3-0 defeat to bitter rivals Columbus over the weekend saw them fail to score for just the third time all year, managing a season-low six shots.
Cincinnati have just three losses in 24 matches, but two of those have come in the past two fixtures. They drew 1-1 with Nashville in the Leagues Cup before losing on penalties, and earlier in the tournament, they drew 3-3 with Kansas City — a match in which they had a man advantage after just 30 minutes.
In their last nine matches across all competitions, Cincinnati have just three wins in regulation. The loss of striker Dominique Badji in early July has been a catalyst for those struggles, and they're yet to keep a clean sheet in that span while uncharacteristically dropping points at home.
Miami manager Tata Martino has already said that Messi will start the Open Cup semifinal after questions about playing so many matches in such a short amount of time. And you could see on Saturday night just how much the tournament meant to him as he was living and dying with every penalty.
Having had an extra day to rest and prepare will be key for Miami as they fly north on Tuesday. The squad has gone through multiple knockout matches without failing, and now they’ve navigated a final, on the road, in front of a hostile crowd.
And just like they did in Nashville, Miami will come out on top. The difference here is that Nashville’s defense is significantly better than Cincinnati’s, and Miami won’t need penalties to get the job done. Take Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba to remain unbeaten as they book their place in the U.S. Open Cup final.
My best bet: Inter Miami moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
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FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami Same Game Parlay
Inter Miami ML
BTTS in the first half - Yes
Over 3.5 goals
Given this match is a U.S. Open Cup fixture and not an MLS match, the betting markets on offer are slimmed down significantly. That said, I’ve put together a solid same-game parlay that will pay out big if it comes through.
Miami’s defense isn’t the best in the league, far from it. And while they’ve made some adjustments during the Leagues Cup to address it, the teams they’ve faced over the past three matches don’t have the attacking weapons that Cincinnati possesses.
While they failed to find the back of the net against Columbus, that was a rivalry match where they were coming off 16 days without playing. I expect they’ll shake off some of that rust and be better prepared against Miami.
Three of Cincinnati’s last five home matches have seen both teams on the scoreboard at halftime, with Cincinnati having scored in four of those contests. Inter Miami have scored before halftime in all seven of Messi’s matches, and have 11 first-half tallies in his six starts.
I don’t trust either defense against the firepower on the pitch Wednesday night, which is why I'm going to pair both teams to score in the opening 45 minutes with an Over 3.5 total, which combined with a Miami win pays out quite nicely at FanDuel.
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis
I've broken down why I'm on Inter Miami to win outright in regulation, which can be had for -105 to -115 across the board. Inter Miami opened at +120 and were quickly bet down. There’s strong value on the draw and the home win for Cincinnati, with the hosts getting +240 and the draw paying close to +300.
But as I've discussed in previous previews, you bet against Inter Miami and Messi at your own peril. If Cincinnati were playing the way they were earlier this season, I’d be on the draw here. But they looked rough on Sunday night, and Miami’s flying high after their big win over Nashville — a team that drew at Cincinnati just a few weeks ago.
As for the total, the Over 2.5 is once again juiced as it always is with Miami. It’ll cost you -200 odds to play the Over, and even the Asian line of 3.0 sees the Over costing -135.
That’s why I'm taking the Over 3.5 in my parlay, and it’s what I’d recommend if you’re playing the total. My read on this match is a 3-1 Inter Miami win, and it’s not out of the question.
Nashville put more shots on goal than Cincinnati in their 1-1 draw at TQL Stadium, and Kansas City recently scored three on their home turf despite being down a man for an hour. They’ll also be without starting center back Yerson Mosquera, who injured his leg last month and remains out.
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami game info
| Location: | TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 |
| Time: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | 91 degrees F, POP 0%, 7mph winds |
FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami key injuries
FC Cincinnati: Dominique Badji F (Out), Stiven Jimenez M (Out), Yerson Mosquera D (Out).
Inter Miami: Corentin Jean F (Out), Franco Negri D (Out), Nicolas Stefanelli M (Out).
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