A London Derby closes out Matchday 10 of the Premier League as Fulham hosts Brentford at Craven Cottage.
The Cottagers saw victory over Everton slip away with a stoppage time goal last week, leaving them three on the trot without a victory. For the Bees, they’ll be happy to see an away stadium that isn’t home to one of the big boys, as they’ve endured one of the toughest away starts in recent memory.
This should be an entertaining match from the opening whistle and we break it down in our Fulham vs. Brentford predictions and free betting picks for Monday, November 4.
EPL predictions for Fulham vs Brentford
My best bet:
Brentford Over 0.5 goals 1H (+116 at TonyBet)
My analysis
It’s safe to say Brentford has been ready from the word “go” this season. After all, there was a stretch of four consecutive Premier League fixtures in September and October where they found the back of the net inside 120 seconds.
And while their last two matches against Manchester United and Ipswich forced them to wait a bit longer to get on the scoresheet, they did so prior to halftime on both occasions. In fact, if you include their fixtures in the EFL Cup, Brentford has scored prior to the halftime whistle in 10 consecutive matches and 11 of 12 on the season.
The Bees have played a rough away schedule so far this season. All four of their Premier League road matches in the current campaign have come against Big 6 clubs, with losses to Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham, and Manchester United. But Brentford has led against the last three sides on that list, with first-half goals against each one.
Fulham has kept just one clean sheet in their first nine Premier League outings, a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest in late September. They’ve also conceded prior to halftime in four of those fixtures.
They were fortunate not to concede in the opening 45 minutes in two other matches. Newcastle breached their defense just seconds after the intermission and wasted multiple first-half chances, while Manchester United failed to score despite having 1.12 xG in the opening stanza.
Fulham’s fullbacks have been heavily involved in the attack this season, and allowing Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa space to operate on the counter-attack will lead to opportunities. The Cottagers have had problems defending attacks down the wings, one of Brentford’s strong suits.
The Bees enter the weekend ranked fourth in turnovers forced in their opponent’s defensive third. They’ll put pressure on Fulham from the outset, and whether it’s from a deep turnover or a long-counter Brentford will put one in the back of the net inside 45 minutes.
Fulham vs Brentford same-game parlay (SGP)
Brentford Over 0.5 goals 1H
Raul Jimenez to score anytime
Over 2.5
Having watched both these clubs a fair amount this season, I think they view a “clean sheet” as something you’ll only find in a laundry bin.
Brentford’s nine Premier League matches have all seen both sides score, aside from their 2-0 loss at Liverpool in the second week of the campaign, while both clubs have scored in seven of Fulham’s nine outings.
With the way these sides operate, this is going to be an up-and-down affair. Three of their last four meetings have featured 3+ goals, and with both teams missing starters in their defensive setup, I’m expecting more of the same here.
Brentford have struggled to deal with lone strikers this season. Each of their last six matches has seen them go against a formation with a single striker, and five of those forwards have found the back of the net — and the only one who didn’t score still managed an assist.
Raul Jimenez didn’t score last week against Everton, just the second time he has failed to score in his eight starts this season for club and country. With how open I anticipate this match to be, he’ll get multiple opportunities to bag another goal against a Brentford side that really struggles to defend away from home.
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Fulham vs Brentford odds
Fulham vs Brentford live odds
Fulham vs Brentford opening odds
- Moneyline: Fulham -105 | Brentford +250
- Draw: +280
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Fulham vs Brentford side and Over/Under analysis
- Fulham are even-money on the 3-way line, with Brentford priced at +254 to win and a draw getting +285 odds. Fulham have taken just one point from their last three league fixtures, while Brentford has lost all four of their away matches. Fulham are also unbeaten in their last five at Craven Cottage against fellow London clubs.
- Brentford has dropped 11 points already this season from winning positions, with nine of those points coming in their last three away outings. Fulham haven’t fared much better, dropping five such points in four home tilts. These sides match up quite well and I like the value offered by the draw.
- The total of 2.5 sees the Over priced at -159 while the Under sits at +134. The Asian total of 3.0 is even odds for the Over, and -118 for the Under. Those feeling bold can take Over 3.5 for a tasty +154 payout.
- Three of Fulham’s four home fixtures have seen 3+ goals, with the last two each having four goals scored. Brentford’s last three away fixtures in the league have also seen 3+ goals scored. In addition, there have been 3+ goals in four of the last five competitive meetings between these sides.
Fulham vs Brentford game info
| Location: | Craven Cottage Stadium, Fulham, England |
| Date: | Monday, 11-4-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | Cool and clear, temps in the upper 40s and no rain. |
 recent EPL form |
D-L-L-W-W |
 recent EPL form |
W-L-W-D-L |
Fulham vs Brentford key injuries
Fulham: Andreas Pereira M (Questionable), Carlos Vinicius F (Questionable), Timothy Castagne D (Questionable), Sasa Lukic M (Out).
Brentford: Rico Henry D (Out), Aaron Hickey D (Out), Gustavo Nunes M (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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