Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC Predictions and Picks: Suarez & Co. Step up With Messi Out

Following a humiliating defeat, Inter Miami looks to get back on track Saturday when they host New York City FC in the latest MLS odds.

A heavily rotated Inter Miami squad was handed their worst defeat under Tata Martino as the New York Red Bulls crushed them 4-0. The Herons were overwhelmed in the midfield and registered just 0.26 expected goals on the day without Lionel Messi available.

It’s been a horrid start for NYCFC, with only three points through five matches having them second-bottom in the Eastern Conference. Their 1-0 defeat at FC Cincinnati last week made it three away matches in the campaign without a single goal to their name.

We explain why it might be more of the same for the visitors in our Inter Miami vs. New York City FC picks and predictions for March 30.

Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC best odds

Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC picks and predictions

While Lionel Messi is back in training, he’s confirmed to be out of the squad on Saturday. Inter Miami has clearly prioritized CONCACAF Champions League so far this season, and they have a midweek fixture with Monterrey that they’re targeting for his return.

Inter Miami were horrid last week, but they were also missing more than 10 players through both injury and international duty. With the likes of Drake Callender back in goal and David Ruiz back from international duty, they’re instantly improved.

New York City FC have just 1.5 xG in three away fixtures this season, which explains why they’ve yet to score a single goal away from home. It doesn’t help that Talles Magno is sidelined with a knee injury, robbing them of their primary playmaker.

But defensively, they’ve been a mess. Their goalkeepers are allowing the fifth-worst post-shot xG in the league, with a -0.7 PSxG mark. That’s problematic when you consider their 3.40 shots on target against per 90 minutes is the sixth-best mark in MLS, meaning they’re not taking advantage of their opponents not putting efforts on goal.

Inter Miami is posting the fifth-best shooting accuracy in the East, averaging five efforts on goal per 90 minutes. Their 0.43 goals per shot on target is third-best in the entire league, as is their 10.1 xG so far.

And those numbers just get better when the Herons are playing at Chase Stadium. Inter Miami’s 7.0 xG and nine goals scored are the best in the East through three matches. They’ve kept two clean sheets in front of their home supporters as well.

Whether or not Messi starts, the threat of Suarez and Leo Campana is more than enough for Miami to see this out. NYCFC has yet to keep a clean sheet through five matches and has allowed four goals and 4.25 xG on the road.

Miami will test their defense in a similar manner to what St Louis City did, and I see a repeat of the 2-0 defeat from that outing. Take the Herons to claim all three points.

My best bet: Inter Miami moneyline (-109 at TonyBet)

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Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC same-game parlay

Inter Miami moneyline

Luis Suarez anytime goalscorer

Santiago Rodriguez 2+ shots

+386 at FanDuel

Suarez had a quiet match last week, but he’ll see much more service here. NYCFC don’t pressure the way Red Bulls do, and he scored four goals in his previous three outings over the course of just 99 minutes. With Messi out, he’ll be the focal point of their attack.

While NYCFC aren’t scoring away from home, Santiago Rodriguez is doing his best to change that. He’s taken nine shots in their three away fixtures, including five against Charlotte. I like him to get off two or more attempts against a Miami defense conceding the second-most shots against in the league.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC side and Over/Under analysis

Inter Miami are not as favored on the 3-way line as they were a week ago, when it appeared Messi would be back. They’ve dropped from -140 to near even money, with -105 the best odds on offer. NYCFC are +280 to win, just ahead of +275 for the draw.

Going back to last season, NYCFC are on an eight-match winless run away from home in MLS play. Inter Miami have won twice and lost once at home in league play this season, and will hope to improve on a 1-1-7 record against NYCFC over their last nine meetings.

The total of 2.5 goals is fairly even on both sides. The Over is slightly favored, with -120 the best price available. NYCFC’s struggles to score away from home are the key factor keeping this from ballooning the way it typically does for Miami’s matches.

Miami have the ability to push the total Over on their own, but it’ll be more difficult without Messi. That said, their last four matches in league play have all gone Over, with a combined 18 goals scored. NYCFC’s three away fixtures, in comparison, have featured a total of just four goals.

Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC game info

Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC key injuries

Inter Miami CF: Lionel Messi F (Out), Facundo Farias M (Out), Federico Redondo M (Out), Ian Fray D (Out).
New York City FC: Talles Magno F (Out), Maximiliano Moralez M (Out), Kevin O’Toole D (Doubtful).

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