Serie A leaders Inter Milan are one of Europe’s hottest teams again this season, and they will look to carry their outstanding domestic form into Tuesday’s Champions League Last 16 first leg against Atletico Madrid.
The Nerazzurri, beaten finalists in Europe’s top competition last year, are favorites in the latest Champions League odds and are riding an eight-game win streak since the start of 2024. That includes a 1-0 win over Napoli in the Coppa Italia final and a 4-0 rout against Salernitana on Friday.
After kicking off February with a draw and two losses, Atletico rediscovered their scoring touch on Saturday, thumping Las Palmas 5-0 behind two goals apiece from Marcos Llorente and Angel Correa.
Read on for my free Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid picks as Champions League action returns with this Tuesday, February 20 matchup.
Inter vs Atletico Madrid best odds
Inter vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
Boasting a nine-point lead at the top of Serie A, plus a game in hand, Inter are rolling. And yet you often still won’t hear Simone Inzaghi’s men mentioned in the same breath as fellow Champions League contenders like Manchester City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich.
There’s a familiar overlooked feeling around Atletico, too. Continually in the shadow of Real Madrid, Diego Simeone and his players seem to feed off the underdog energy, and I don’t see either team backing down on Tuesday.
With both teams coming off slick attacking performances, I like the odds for both teams to score. Atletico scored in all six Champions League group stage outings on the way to 17 total goals while Inter have been deadly in Serie A with 59 goals in 24 games.
Recent team selections have been telling, too. This tie is getting the managers’ full attention, with Simeone resting Antoine Griezmann on Saturday to keep him fresh for midweek and Inzaghi rotating his squad against Salernitana.
As much as these clubs know how to grind out results, I expect Inter to understand that they need to make home advantage count — and Atletico to realize an ultra-defensive approach is asking for trouble.
Another reason to like this BTTS prop is that both managers have difference-makers off the bench to shake things up, with Alexis Sanchez, Marko Arnautovic, and Correa among a star-studded group of substitutes.
Atletico should also get some minutes from key marksman Alvaro Morata after a knee injury scare, and I see both teams playing their part in an entertaining first leg.
My best bet: Both teams to score - Yes (+106 at TonyBet)
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Inter vs Atletico Madrid same-game parlay
BTTS - Yes
Lautaro Martinez anytime goal
Atletico Over 1.5 cards
Lautaro Martinez has been at the heart of Inter’s storming run in Serie A, with 20 goals in 22 appearances. He’s scored six times in his past eight outings, running right alongside strike partner Marcus Thuram.
The Argentine netted two Champions League goals during the group stage, and I see him adding to his tally in this first leg, especially after only logging 60 minutes for the Nerazzurri on Friday.
Atletico know their way around European ties, and I expect Simeone to have a well-drilled tactical plan in place. That may well include gamesmanship, tough tackling, and a little time-wasting.
I’m throwing in the odds for the visitors to finish with at least two cards. Atletico have received 57 bookings in 25 La Liga games this season — and Over 1.5 cards has been a winner in two of their last three games.
The visitors love the spoiler role and that tends to mean an uptick in cards. I’m also looking at similar road fixtures — they were on the back foot away to Real Madrid on February 4 and ended up with four yellow cards, and they finished with four cards again in early December at Barcelona.
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Inter vs Atletico Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
Though Inter are clear favorites on home turf, there’s respect for Atletico sprinkled into the odds. With Simeone pacing the technical area, there’s an intensity to the visitors and they’ve won five of their last six knockout contests against Italian teams.
Even so, this isn’t peak Atletico. As well as they have played at home, they’ve only picked up four wins away from Civitas Metropolitan Stadium in La Liga.
As a result, the formbook points to Inter, and their relentless domestic run this season amounts to 31 points from a possible 36 in the league at San Siro. While all eyes will be on the big-name forwards in this tie, I’m watching for Federico Dimarco and Matteo Darmian, both rested on Friday, to be X-factors down the flanks.
While I’ve picked the BTTS – Yes prop, this isn’t likely to descend into an end-to-end thriller. For a start, Atletico’s defensive game plan just doesn’t align with that script.
The visitors have been stifled by Real, Sevilla, and Athletic Bilbao this month, but they’ve got the firepower to test an Inter defense that’s kept a clean sheet in five of the past six contests.
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Inter vs Atletico Madrid game info
| Location: | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 20, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Weather: | Low 50s, dry after early thunderstorms |
Inter vs Atletico Madrid key injuries
Inter: Francesco Acerbi D (Questionable), Juan Cuadrado M (Out).
Atletico Madrid: Alvaro Morata F (Probable), Gabriel Paulista D (Questionable), Cesar Azpilicueta D (Out).
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