Inter Milan and Porto bring European pedigree by the truckload, and they collide on Wednesday in the first leg of what should be a tense, old-school tie.
The Nerazzurri have been left in the dust by a rampant Napoli side in Serie A, but closed the gap to 15 points with a 3-1 win over Udinese on Saturday. Simone Inzaghi’s men had to play second fiddle in the Champions League group stage too, edging out Barcelona to qualify behind Bayern Munich.
A banged-up Porto team travels to Italy in the thick of a three-horse race in the Primeira Liga and boosted by a 1-0 victory over Rio Ave at the weekend (their eighth in a row). Their Champions League journey got off to a disastrous start with no points from their first two group games before they reeled off four straight victories to top Group B.
The first Champions League knockout round is heating up, so check out our free Inter vs Porto betting picks and predictions for everything you need to know about this Wednesday, February 22 matchup.
Inter vs Porto odds
Inter vs Porto picks and predictions
We’re entering the stage of the competition where it’s more about substance than style — and that should suit both of these teams just fine. Despite some up-and-down results in the group stage, Inter and Porto have leaned into defense-first, gritty performances in their domestic leagues in recent weeks. I expect that to continue here in a cagey first leg in Milan.
Yes, there’s plenty of attacking quality on both sides, but the two defenses are well equipped to hold firm. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, the Nerazzurri have conceded just six goals in 11 games. They haven’t exactly been banging them in at the other end either — six of those games ended with Inter either scoring once or being shut out.
Three of the Nerazzurrri’s last four games have hit the Under on 2.5 total goals, and they’ve had two clean sheets already this month, including a 1-0 win in the Milan derby.
It’s a similar story with Porto, who’ve built their win streak on defensive solidity. They haven’t scored more than two goals in any of their last six victories, but five clean sheets have ensured maximum points.
Given their growing injury list, the visitors should be even more inclined to make themselves difficult to beat, staying alive for the second leg on home turf. It will be interesting to see whether Sergio Conceicao sticks with his usual 4-4-2 formation or picks an extra midfielder to make his team harder to break down.
From an Inter standpoint, this first leg represents a chance to take a stranglehold on the tie, but I see a more cautious approach winning out here, with Inzaghi’s men happy to secure even a narrow advantage before the trip to Portugal. Taking the Under on 2.5 total goals feels like the way to go.
My best bet: Under 2.5 goals (-133 at BetMGM)
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Inter vs Porto side analysis
Unbeaten in their last five games and looking rock-solid defensively, Inter are clear first-leg favorites. They’ve conceded just one goal over their last four outings, and key Porto absences could make life easier for Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez.
Porto’s injury woes are the biggest reason to downplay their chances here. I expect Conceicao’s game plan to slant toward getting bodies behind the ball and frustrating the hosts. Even so, the visitors will back themselves to make the most of the chances they create — just as they did against Sporting 10 days ago on the way to a 2-1 victory despite only 44% of the possession.
Inter’s 3-5-2 formation lends itself to keeping the ball and controlling the tempo (they had almost 60% of the possession against Udinese on the weekend), and they’ll need plenty of patience to break through this Porto team. The visitors aren’t short on experience, starting with 39-year-old Pepe at the heart of the defense, but this is cruel timing for the injury bug to strike.
Inter vs Porto Over/Under analysis
Scoring chances could come at a premium on Wednesday, with Inter’s back three dominating in recent weeks. As I’ve outlined above, both teams have trended towards low-scoring games and disciplined, organized performances.
The biggest question is how quickly Porto’s reshuffled line-up will settle on this big stage — and the first 15 minutes should set the tone. They’ve had time to adjust to some of the injuries, but more recent knocks for Mateus Uribe and Antonio Martinez could stifle their forays forward.
In what feels likely to be a physical, scrappy battle, the visitors’ ability to shut down Marcelo Brozovic and Nicolo Barella in the Inter midfield engine room could have a big say in nudging this toward a one-goal game.
If you’re picking a high-scoring thriller, you’re likely counting on Inter’s strikers — Martinez, Lukaku, and Edin Dzeko — to run riot. But Porto have been outstanding defensively over the past month and only conceded one goal across their final four Champions League group games. Don’t underestimate their squad depth.
Inter vs Porto game info
| Location: | San Siro Stadium, Milan, Italy |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 22, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
Inter vs Porto key injuries
Inter: Joaquin Correa ST (Doubtful).
Porto: Antonio Martinez ST (Questionable), Otavio CM (Questionable), Mateus Uribe CM (Doubtful), Galeno FW (Doubtful), Evanilson ST (Out), Gabriel Veron FW (Out), Francisco Meixedo GK (Out), Fabio Cardoso CB (Out).
Inter vs Porto weather
Light rain is in the forecast around kickoff on Wednesday, with temperatures in the low 50s, but those showers are unlikely to be heavy enough to impact the playing surface.
