Man City vs Bayern Munich Picks and Predictions: City Cruises to Big Win in First Leg

Nothing beats the Champions League when it gets into the latter stages, and today's Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich game is arguably the most fascinating of this week’s quarterfinal games. Man City come into this in red-hot form and face a Bayern side with more than one familiar face.

The managers know each other well too, and Pep Guardiola will still be scarred from the last time they met in European competition. Don’t miss my best bet for this match in my Man City vs. Bayern Munich picks and predictions.

Man City vs Bayern Munich best odds

Man City vs Bayern Munich picks and predictions

Man City are playing at their very best. They beat Southampton 4-1 on Saturday, and in their last four games across all competitions, they’ve scored an incredible 23 goals — scoring a minimum of four in each game. You can grab Man City -1 at a massive price of +187, which is our best bet.

On the flip side of that City record you have Bayern Munich, who are still top of the Bundesliga, but only beat Freiburg 1-0 on Saturday and lost 2-1 to the same team in the cup just days earlier.

New manager Thomas Tuchel did manage a 4-2 victory over title contenders Dortmund, but it was concerning how they let Dortmund score two despite having a four-goal lead. That will be a worry for Tuchel and Bayern Munich’s fanbase ahead of this trip to Manchester and free-scoring City.

We know all about the talent on Bayern Munich, and while it’s always risky to write them off, the reality is that they aren’t as good as Manchester City. We judge them a lot because of domestic dominance and recent Champions League seasons, but they no longer have someone like Robert Lewandowski.

It's mad to say given that Bayern have scored 77 Bundesliga goals this season, but they don’t have a reliable poacher. Jamal Musiala leads the league scoring on 11 with Choupo-Moting one behind on 10.

Sharing around goals is something that is hugely important domestically, but so often in big Champions League games we see that having a clinical goalscorer is essential. These are massive games with huge moments, and chances need to be taken when they arise. With that in mind, it makes Erling Haaland — who has 44 goals for the club this season — essential in both this game and their Champions League hopes. 

Haaland comes into this match on the back of scoring a brace against Southampton on Saturday, and he’ll be the key man here. City and Haaland are scoring for fun right now and against a Bayern Munich team who don’t have a genuine frontman, I’m expecting them to win comfortably. For those reasons, I’d recommend backing Man City -1 on the handicap, which is a great price at +187.

My best bet: Man City -1 (+187 at bet365)

Man City vs Bayern Munich side analysis

We saw Man City play a strong team against Southampton on Saturday, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Guardiola stuck with the same starting lineup. It’s always hard to nail positions with a Pep team given how they change so much.

We should see a back four of Nathan Ake, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, and John Stones, with Stones and Ake pushing up into the midfield when needed and adding another man there. In midfield, we have Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan, with Kevin De Bruyne pushing forward.

Out wide Riyad Mahrez will probably keep his starting spot, and on the left Jack Grealish is surely a lock given his brilliant performances in 2023. Up front, it’ll be that man, Erling Haaland, who is not only in great form but has plenty of experience against Bayern Munich from his days playing for Dortmund.

It’s almost impossible to accurately predict Tuchel’s Bayern Munich lineup. So far he’s tried Choupo-Moting up front as well as Serge Gnabry acting as a false nine. The Cameroonian has a knock so I’d expect to see a false nine, but it could be any one of Gnabry, Sadio Mane, Thomas Muller, or even Kingsley Coman or Leroy Sane.

We can be sure of Yann Somer in goal and a defense consisting of Matthijs de Ligt and Dayot Upamecano. Two of Alphonso Davies, Benjamin Pavard, and Joao Cancelo will play at fullback, and it’ll most likely be the former Man City man who misses out.

In midfield, Joshua Kimmich is a certainty, as is Jamal Musiala. Any of those potential false nines who don’t start in that position will also be in with a chance of starting out wide of in behind whoever gets that role.

Man City vs Bayern Munich Over/Under analysis

The total goals market is firmly pointing us towards backing Over 2.5 goals, here with the odds coming in at the best price of -150 with the Under at +135. Given the recent goal scoring of Man City, it’s easy to understand why.

Back in the Premier League, we’ve seen 85.7% of Man City’s home games seeing Over 2.5 goals. In four home games in the Champions League this season, we’ve seen City win 7-0, 3-1, 5-0, and 2-1.

63% of Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga games have gone Over 2.5, but away from home that drops to 57.1%. That said, it’s a new regime now with Thomas Tuchel in charge, which might make looking at past trends irrelevant. Instead, we’ll go with our gut. City is in such good goal-getting form, so we’ll be backing Over 2.5 goals here.

Man City vs Bayern Munich game info

Man City vs Bayern Munich key injuries

Man City: Phil Foden AMF (Out).
Bayern Munich: Lucas Hernandez LB (Out), Manuel Neuer GK (Out), Mathys Tel ST (Out), Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ST (Questionable).

Man City vs Bayern Munich weather

A wet Manchester day will see temperatures around 50 degrees at kickoff.

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