Manchester United will seek to end a four-match Premier League streak without either a win or a goal when they host Aston Villa on Boxing Day. Our soccer betting odds see both teams evenly favored to walk away with all three points.
The Red Devils were taken apart by West Ham on Saturday, in a match where they managed just three shots on target. They sit eighth in the table, having suffered more defeats in a campaign before Christmas in more than 90 years. To say Erik ten Hag’s seat is blazing hot would be an understatement.
Aston Villa had a chance to take the top spot in the Premier League table this weekend but needed a stoppage-time equalizer to avoid losing to lowly Sheffield United. The result pushed Villa’s unbeaten run in all competitions to 10 matches, and they’ll hope to make it five unbeaten away on the trot with a result at Old Trafford.
There is plenty on the line for both squads, but we’ll explain why one team has exceptional value in our Manchester United vs Aston Villa picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 26.
Man United vs Aston Villa best odds
EPL predictions for Man United vs Aston Villa
There are no teams in the history of England’s top flight with more Boxing Day victories than Manchester United and Aston Villa. With 99 victories between them, each will be hoping to add one more to their tally on Tuesday.
But with how these teams are playing at the moment, there is immense value in taking Aston Villa on the 3-way money line.
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Old Trafford was a fortress for Manchester United, but right now, it’s anything but. They’ve suffered defeat in four of their last six home matches across all competitions and have a balanced ledger with seven defeats and seven victories on the campaign.
Not only have those defeats come to powers like Manchester City and Bayern Munich, but they’ve also lost to Brighton, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth. But that’s to be expected when you’re struggling to convert scoring opportunities and turning the ball over in dangerous areas.
The side has scored just 18 goals despite an expected goals mark of more than 27. None of their forwards have more than three goals this season, and their high-dollar signing Rasmus Hojlund is still seeking his first league goal of the campaign.
Sky Sports reported over the weekend that wingers Alejandro Garnacho and Antony have made a combined 11 passes to Hojlund over a combined 900 minutes. Injuries and head-scratching decisions by ten Hag have the side looking disconnected and lacking anything resembling a tactical objective.
When you’re facing a team managed by Unai Emery, that’s a recipe for disaster. Sheffield United were able to stun them at the weekend by playing inspired and giving every ounce of effort they had. They blocked four of Villa’s 12 shots on the day and were able to dispossess them 17 times.
That’s not going to be something they’ll encounter against Manchester United. The Red Devils prefer to be on the ball, and teams like West Ham have been carving them apart on the counter-attack all season with only Brighton and Wolves allowing more counter-attack goals in the Premier League.
Aston Villa rank fourth in that category, and their 24 goals scored from open play are the fifth-most in the league. They also can capitalize on set pieces against a Manchester United defense that could be missing their top four central defenders should Raphael Varane again miss out due to illness.
Both Man United and Aston Villa are priced at +160 to win on the 3-way line, and it makes little sense. The Red Devils aren’t scoring goals, they’re in disarray, and injuries continue to prevent any consistency in their lineups or performance. They’ve also got one fewer day of rest, with Villa having played Friday night.
Take Emery’s side to walk away with all three points, while we come away with a solid profit.
My best bet: Aston Villa moneyline (+160 at TonyBet)
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Man United vs Aston Villa same-game parlay
Aston Villa moneyline
Ollie Watkins to score or assist
Douglas Luiz Over 1.5 tackles
At +300, our same-game parlay provides a modest return with solid probability.
Only five teams in the Premier League take a higher percentage of their shot attempts inside the 18-yard area than Villa, and only five teams allow a higher percentage of their shots inside the six-yard box than Man United.
Add in the fact Villa striker Ollie Watkins has contributed to eight goals over his nine Premier League away outings, and I love him to get either a goal or assist here.
In their last three matches, Manchester United have come up against seven different central midfielders tasked with contributing defensively. Five of those players have come away with at least two tackles, including Tomas Soucek of West Ham.
Douglas Luiz has become more involved in that area for Villa of late, and he’s recorded multiple tackles in six of his last seven matches — including three against Arsenal. He has a high likelihood of repeating that feat against Man United.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Man United vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis
With both sides priced evenly at +160, bettors will lose some early value that was available for the away side. Aston Villa opened as high as +240 and were even +210 at bet365 on Friday. But the performance by Man United on Saturday quickly saw money fly in on the visitors.
Villa haven’t won at Man United in their last three visits, losing each time and being held scoreless twice. They’ve also beaten Man United just four times overall in their last 38 matches. But they’ve been held scoreless just twice in 13 away fixtures across all competitions this season, and have four wins and three draws in their last eight away.
Man United have lost three of their last four without a win in that span, and have just one victory over their last seven. Their last home fixture saw them humiliated 3-0 by Bournemouth, and their only home wins this season have come against Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, and Chelsea.
The Over 2.5 is favored with a price as high as -163, while DraftKings has moved their total to an even three goals with the Under being slightly favored. I’m staying away from the total here because I’m not sure if Man United can contribute enough.
Villa’s last four matches have seen two or fewer goals on three occasions, ending a run of 5-1 for the Over. Man United’s had three straight Unders, in part because they’ve failed to score in four consecutive matches in all competitions.
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Man United vs Aston Villa game info
| Location: | Old Trafford, Greater Manchester, England |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 26, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
| Weather: | 40F, 5-12 mph winds, 88% humidity, 7% POP |
Man United vs Aston Villa key injuries
Man United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Raphael Varane D (Questionable), Harry Maguire D (Out).
Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara M (Out), Youri Tielemans M (Out), Tyrone Mings D (Out).
Man United vs Aston Villa recent league form
| Teams | Recent Premier League Form |
|---|---|
 Man United |
W-L-W-L-L |
 Aston Villa |
W-D-W-W-W |
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