Manchester City vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Citizens' Championship Momentum Continues

While the Premier League doesn’t have a tournament, Wednesday will see a de facto championship match when Manchester City and Arsenal do battle at Etihad Stadium. 

Arsenal have seen their lead slip away on the back of three consecutive league draws. Now they lead Man City by just five points, and need to find a way to beat a City side that has defeated them 11 straight times in league play. Having played two matches fewer than the Gunners and sporting a superior goal differential, a Manchester City win on Wednesday would require an epic collapse down the stretch to deny them yet another Premier League crown.

Can Manchester City take one step closer to their fifth Premier League title in six seasons, or will Arsenal prevent a capitulation and give their fans hope of ending a title drought nearly two decades long? We break that down in our Manchester City vs Arsenal picks and predictions for Wednesday, April 26. 

Manchester City vs Arsenal best odds

Manchester City vs Arsenal picks and predictions

Arsenal fans were given a double dose of bad news on Tuesday, when manager Mikel Arteta confirmed that defender Wiliam Saliba has yet to return to training and will miss Wednesday’s match with Man City. In addition, midfielder Granit Xhaka is a serious doubt for the match.

Since Saliba came off injured against Sporting in late March, the title race has tightened up. They conceded later in that match and were eliminated on penalties. The defeat ended a run of five wins and a draw in their previous six.

After that, wins against Crystal Palace and Leeds were followed by three consecutive draws at Liverpool, at West Ham, and against Southampton. While the Liverpool result can be forgiven in typical circumstances, Arsenal were ahead 2-0 and should’ve had a third, and instead fell apart in the second half. 

The West Ham result again saw Arsenal blow a 2-0 lead, and Southampton stunned the Gunners with a first-minute goal and led by two within a quarter hour. Arsenal would rally from 3-1 down with two goals in the final minutes of the match to secure a point, but it also removed any cushion they enjoyed over their challengers.

Without a clean sheet since the loss of Saliba, Arsenal now take on the most lethal attack in the Premier League. Aside from their second leg visit to Bayern Munich in Champions League, where they already enjoyed a three-goal aggregate advantage, Manchester City has scored at least three goals in each of its last seven matches. They’ve scored 32 goals over their last nine matches — and 15 of those have come from Erling Haaland.

Their star forward continues to smash records left and right, and if not for Pep subbing him off early in blowouts, he would likely have even more goals. Denied an opportunity to take a penalty against Sheffield United in the FA Cup semi-final at the weekend, he’s going to be hungry to score against an Arsenal defense missing its best player. His goal capped a 3-1 win against Arsenal in the reverse fixture in mid-February, and he caused issues even with Saliba and Xhaka in the lineup.

If Manchester City are going to win, it’s going to be in large part through the efforts of their star striker. I see few ways that the hosts win this game without the big Norwegian finding the back of the net, so it makes sense to combine the two. It makes even more sense to run, not walk, over to FanDuel, who are still offering a same-game parlay of the two at +114. 

This parlay, pre-built or otherwise, is currently -110 or worse at every other book out there, and I almost guarantee it will be bet down further as kickoff approaches. Haaland props take a beating every matchday, so get in there early and enjoy the strong closing line value this wager offers. 

My best bet: Man City ML/Haaland to score anytime SGP (+114 at FanDuel)

Manchester City vs Arsenal side analysis

The reason there isn’t a lot of value at the moment is that City are heavily favored on the 3-way line. Their price gets juiced more by the hour, with every book offering them at -180 or higher after opening around -150. In fact, not only are the visitors the underdogs, they’re at longer odds than the draw.

Only Nathan Ake is expected to be out after injuring his hamstring, with City either going to a three-man back line or deputizing a player at left back in his place. It’ll be interesting to see how Pep Guardiola sets up to prevent Bukayo Saka doing damage down that flank. City are unbeaten in their last 16 matches in all competitions, and have won six straight in the Premier League. They’ve also won 13 of 15 league fixtures at the Etihad this campaign.

Arsenal will be hoping that Xhaka can return to the midfield, but Saliba will be joined on the sidelines by Takehiro Tomiyasu and Mohamed Elneny. Gabriel Martinelli will join Saka in trying to exploit City on the counter attack and is in excellent form, with three goals and three assists in his last five matches. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six away matches, but three of those matches have been draws. 

City has won all 12 matches at the Etihad since the calendar flipped, and history is on their side in this rivalry. Not only have they won 11 straight Premier League clashes, they’ve conceded just three goals in the last 10 meetings in total. In addition, the last seven meetings at the Etihad have seen Arsenal score three times, while City has scored 18 goals. With the form these teams are in, there’s no reason to expect those trends to change. Parlay the win with something to bring up the price, as betting it straight isn’t worth the juice. 

Manchester City vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

The total of 2.5 goals has shifted heavily towards the Over. After opening around -130, it now sits nearly as juiced as the 3-way line, with the Over in the range of -170 or worse. 

Four of the last six meetings between these two teams have been high-scoring affairs, in large part due to Man City’s firepower. Their two meetings this season saw a 3-1 win at the Emirates a few weeks after City knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup with a 1-0 home victory.

City’s last six wins at the Etihad have seen a total of 24 goals scored, with only one match missing the three goal or more tally. Without Saliba, the totals have gone up in Arsenal’s matches of late, with the last four outings each going Over, with a total of 15 goals scored.

The Over is my lean in this one, but again I’d look to parlay with something else. Both teams have outstanding attacking players, and neither have been adept at keeping clean sheets of late. The Over 3.5 is priced at +150 or better and could offer strong value. 

Manchester City vs Arsenal game info

Manchester City vs Arsenal key injuries

Manchester City: Nathan Ake D (Out).
Arsenal: Granit Xhaka M (Doubtful), William Saliba D (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu D (Out).

Manchester City vs Arsenal recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Manchester City	W-W-L-W-W
Arsenal	W-D-W-W-W

Manchester City vs Arsenal weather

Wednesday afternoon showers could linger into the evening, with a 33% chance of rain after kickoff. Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s during the match, but winds will be light and shouldn’t impact this fixture.

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