As we welcome back the Champions League this Tuesday there is one game that really stands out. A truly fascinating battle between two of the world’s best managers who both take a very different approach to how the game is played.
Atletico Madrid has already eliminated Manchester United from the Champions League but now it's attempting to take out Manchester City too as the massive underdog. Read our Man City vs. Atletico Madrid Champions League betting picks and predictions to see who will prevail in this bonafide matchup
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Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid match odds
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
- Prediction: Atletico Madrid ML (+1,000)
- Prediction: Under 2.5 (+106)
- Best bet: Reinildo to get booked (+200)
Predictions made on 4/4/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid game info
• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
• Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid betting preview
Weather
A long wet day in Manchester is in store with the rain still pouring when this game kicks off at 8 p.m. local time. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.
Injuries
Manchester City: Ruben Dias CB (Out), Cole Palmer ST (Out).
Atletico Madrid: Hector Herrera DM (Out), Jose Gimenez CB (Out).
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
One of the many things we love about this sport is that there are many ways to win a game. There aren’t too many managers who symbolize that better than the two on show in this Champions League clash. Man City’s Pep Guardiola and Atletico Madrid’s Diego Simeone are both winners but their approach to football and how it is played are so, so different.
Pep Guardiola’s four-year spell in charge of Barcelona only intertwined for one year with Simeone, with the Argentine arriving in 2011. Guardiola is known for an attacking, possession-based approach while Simeone is known as a master of the dark arts and a pioneer of anti-football.
In truth, Simeone’s style has developed through the years and this Atletico itineration isn’t quite as devious and calculating as it was previously. That said when it comes to the crunch time, as it did in the victory over Man Utd, it resorted to the sort of antics that infuriate you when it’s against your team, but love when your team is doing it.
On Tuesday when these two very different clubs meet we’re going to see a real clash of styles and a game which could go either way.
Guardiola’s Man City is almost certainly one of the three best teams in the world, alongside Bayern Munich and Liverpool. In my view, it's the best with the squad depth being a huge advantage allowing it to bring on sensational players when Plan A isn’t working.
Who will be playing and where is always a question when Man City play but it’ll be set up in a 4-3-3. John Stones should partner Aymeric Laporte with Ruben Dias still sidelined and the midfield should feature Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva.
As for the front three, it’s hard to know exactly who’ll play but we know how City will work with two players on either side of a false nine, most likely Phil Foden.
You’d expect Simeone to set up his stall to defend and keep things tight, looking for Joao Felix and Antoine Griezmann to help create something on the counter. Griezmann offers the team more defensive strength than Suarez and was brilliant against Man Utd, so I’d expect him to start.
So the million-dollar question is, who is going to win? It really is hard to look beyond Man City who has been so dominant this year but at -300 I don’t think it’s a smart bet when we know that Atletico will look to keep things really tight.
Instead, I’d put a small stake on Atletico Madrid to win with monster odds of +1,000. It’s unlikely but we saw against United that it was able to soak up pressure and counter effectively, and with Simeone in charge I think Atletico has a manager who is an expert in game management and could pull off a huge shock here.
Keep the stake very low but backing Madrid is smarter than having to put on a big stake to win much by backing Man City.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid moneyline (+1,000 at Bet365)
Over/Under analysis
We’ll be taking Under 2.5 goals here. Despite the brilliance of that Man City team, this game should be fairly tight with Diego Simeone unlikely to break the habit of a lifetime and go gung-ho.
Man City has scored 70 goals in 30 Premier League games this year but it’s important to realize that number has a lot of high-scoring matches in it.
Eight of its 30 games have seen it score four or more goals, with the majority of those games often against teams in very bad form and facing potential relegation.
In the three games it's had to fair against Liverpool and Chelsea, City scored just four goals. It wouldn’t be fair to call it flat track bullies but don’t expect it to run over Atletico here.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
Best bet
There’s only one thing we can be certain of in this game and that’s Atletico Madrid players committing fouls and engaging in the dark arts. It’s what it does and it’s something that it has been great at doing in the past.
There are a number of potential candidates to get a booking. Sime Vrsaljko, and Geoffrey Kondogbia are amongst the most likely, but it’s Reinildo that we’ll be backing.
You can get the Mozambique star at +200 with DraftKings, a far bigger price than the -105 that other sportsbooks are offering.
He’s a yellow card waiting to happen and needs to be backed, especially at +200 which is hugely generous. He arrived in Madrid from France, and before his move, he picked up seven yellows in 18 Ligue 1 games for Lille and has added three more in 10 games spanned over La Liga and Champions League.
His recent performances are reason enough to be rushing to the counter to put down this bet but that becomes even more apparent when you realize that he’ll be likely lining up opposite Riyad Mahrez or Raheem Sterling, with both men capable of turning him inside out and causing him to make rash challenges.
Pick: Reinildo to get booked (+200 at DraftKings)
