The Champions League returns on Tuesday with Manchester United welcoming Atletico Madrid to Old Trafford. It’s been a busy few weeks since these teams last met with Man Utd getting thrashed by Man City in the derby and then beating the Spurs this past weekend.
With the first leg of this Champions League Round of 16 finishing 1-1, this game is finely poised.
Can Ralf Rangnick’s Man U do enough to get through or will Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid have the last laugh? Find out in our free Champions League picks and predictions for Manchester United vs. Atletico Madrid.
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid betting tips
Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid game info
• Location: Old Trafford, Manchester, England
• Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid betting preview
Weather
This game kicks off at 8:00 p.m. local time and the temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s. Fortunately, it’ll be dry and not too windy, so we should have good conditions for the game.
Injuries
Manchester United: Luke Shaw LB (Out).
Atletico Madrid: Daniel Wass MF (Out), Matheus Cunha F (Out), Mario Hermossa CB (Out), Geoffrey Kondogbia MF (Out), Thomas Lemar MF (Out), Angel Correa ST (Out), Sime Vrsaliko RB (Out).
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
The Champions League is back on our screens this Tuesday and we’re set for an exciting clash at Old Trafford. News broke on Monday that the Manchester United hierarchy is considering knocking down the stadium and building a new one in its place.
One thing is for certain, Old Trafford has seen some incredible European nights through the years and Man U will need another one of those famous occasions if it's to get the better of Atletico Madrid and secure a place in the quarterfinals.
Neither Manchester United nor Atletico Madrid has had the seasons they've wanted. Atletico sits fourth in La Liga, trailing its city rivals by double-digit points. Meanwhile, Man U sits fifth in the English Premier League and it currently looks unlikely to regain a place inside the top four, missing out on Champions League next season.
The first leg of this matchup finished 1-1 and it was an interesting battle between Rangnick and Simeone’s teams, both coaches with firm and committed ideologies. The Spanish side took the lead in the seventh minute through Joao Felix and could have extended their lead, creating a lot of chances in the beginning of the match.
Man Utd slowly worked their way back into it, dominating possession but struggling to create high-quality chances. The pressure was building and you could feel the momentum swing toward the English side as it looked to get back into the game.
Eventually, Anthony Elanga found himself through on goal and leveled the scores on the day.
United dominated possession and had more shots on target but a draw felt like the fair score. Meanwhile, Atletico only had one shot on target, the goal, from their 13, which shows their wastefulness given how many good chances they had.
The biggest issue for United was the decision to play Victor Lindelof at rightback, with Harry Maguire and Raphael Varane in the middle. Lindelof was found wanting a number of times with Joao Felix finding space in the channels between him and those at the heart of defense. Rangnick will almost certainly fix that by playing Diogo Dalot at RB, something which should install confidence in the backline.
Atletico comes into this with some injuries and some of the players who stood out in the first leg, such as Geoffrey Kondogbia, will be missing. Koke will take his place, which on paper is an upgrade, but the Frenchman was sensational in the first meeting between these teams.
The midfield battle will be key to this game, with Bruno Fernandes returning for Man Utd and likely to be alongside Paul Pogba and Scott McTominay. United's 4-3-3 means it'll be outnumbered in the middle by Atletico’s 3-5-2 and will need to find ways to create within that space.
We’ve seen Diego Simeone’s squad play big Champions League knockout games in recent years and we know exactly how it'll play. It will keep things narrow in the middle of the pitch, keep compact, and look to frustrate Man U.
People either love or hate Simeone’s style and it isn’t for everyone but they’re masters of grinding games out, even if they’re not at the same level that it was three or four years ago.
With neither side playing at the levels associated with the clubs in recent years and the importance of this clash, I’m expecting it to be tense and tight. This is one of those games that really could go either way and I’m not bullish on either side. With that in mind, I think the best value is on the game to finish a draw after 90 minutes.
Prediction: Draw (+210)
Over/Under analysis
The first leg finished 1-1 and I really wouldn’t be shocked to see the same scoreline in this match. It’s going to be a nervous game for both sides and I get the feeling that neither team will push too hard and would rather wait and pounce on any errors.
Man Utd has gone Under 2.5 goals in 60% of its home games in the EPL this season. This isn’t the same competition obviously, but it shows that it isn't that great at home. In fact, just one of its past seven in the league has seen three or more goals.
Neither strike force looked that dangerous in front of goal in the first leg with just the two goals being scored from 20 shots. If this game is anything like the last one, the Under 2.5 goals will be a steal.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-138)
Best bet
Atletico Madrid and cards, can you name a better combination? If there’s one thing you associate with Diego Simeone, it’s a team that pushes the limits of the laws of the game in order to get the result it wants.
When it's winning, it'll waste time and commit lots of silly challenges and when the team is losing, it often loses its heads.
The line for cards in this game sits at 5.5 which is staggeringly low when there were nine cards in the first leg. Across all competitions, Atletico has had 97 yellows and nine reds this season, 19 yellows and six reds more than Man Utd. Given everything on the line you simply have to bet Over 5.5 cards in the game.
Pick: Over 5.5 cards in the match (-110)
