For Newcastle and AC Milan, it all comes down to Wednesday’s must-win matchup with their hopes of Champions League qualification hanging in the balance.
The two teams sit on five points and need a victory combined with a favor from Borussia Dortmund to squeeze through in Group F, setting the stage for a drama at St. James’ Park.
The tension should be cranked up another notch after both clubs fell to disappointing weekend losses, with Newcastle slumping to a 4-1 loss at Tottenham and AC Milan falling to a last-gasp 3-2 defeat against Atalanta.
Read on for our free betting picks for Newcastle vs. AC Milan ahead of this December 13 showdown.
Newcastle vs AC Milan best odds
Newcastle vs AC Milan picks and predictions
The most obvious reaction to Newcastle’s miserable loss to Tottenham on Sunday was that this squad has been stretched too thin for too long and that they’re running on fumes. It’s hard to argue with that assessment, but big European nights at St. James’ Park can breathe life into this Magpies team.
Eddie Howe’s men are a different beast on home turf. Newcastle have already thumped PSG 4-1 at home in this group stage, and they’ve won seven of their eight contests at home in the Premier League. I expect the Toon Army to turn the stadium into a cauldron of noise for this high-stakes affair.
Meanwhile, AC Milan have collected just a single point on the road so far in Group F, and you have to go back to October 7 for the Rossoneri’s last victory away from the San Siro in any competition.
In a win-or-bust scenario, I see Newcastle finding a way to grind out the three points and I’m wagering on the moneyline odds. A victory may not be enough to sneak through to the next round, but I like the hosts’ chances of attacking a reshuffled AC Milan defense via the pace and direct running of Miguel Almiron and Anthony Gordon.
Callum Wilson and Sean Longstaff came off the bench on Sunday to boost Newcastle’s depth, and any fresh legs will help here after a grueling stretch.
The Magpies were on the back foot in their visit to the San Siro in September and were outshot 25-6, but I expect a backlash here after consecutive league losses. This feels like a good price for Newcastle to end the group stage on a high note.
My best bet: Newcastle moneyline (-109 at TonyBet)
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Newcastle vs AC Milan same-game parlay
Newcastle moneyline
Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer
Both teams to score: Yes
If Newcastle get the better of the AC Milan defense, it starts with Alexander Isak getting back on the scoresheet. He found the net away to PSG in his last European outing and has seven goals in 10 Premier League starts this season.
It’s worth watching where Howe chooses to use Isak with Wilson available again, but the Magpies are at their best when Isak is feeding off the team’s lively wing play.
Since this is a must-win game for AC Milan too, I like the odds for both teams to score. The visitors have scored 2+ goals in back-to-back games, and star man Rafael Leao is expected to return to the starting lineup after sitting out on Saturday.
It’s hard to see Newcastle keeping a clean sheet after messy defensive performances over the past week, including seven goals conceded in their last two outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Newcastle vs AC Milan side and Over/Under analysis
Having this final group game on home turf is a huge plus for Newcastle, who enter as clear favorites to get the win they need to keep their qualification hopes alive. You can find odds as high as +280 for AC Milan to snatch a road victory.
Neither team can point to much recent form, but the Magpies’ losses to Everton and Tottenham both came on the road. I’m putting faith in Newcastle’s excellent home record against an AC Milan team that looked shaky defensively away to Atalanta.
In a matchup packed with talented attackers, I see the fullbacks being a key X-factor. Kieran Trippier — coming off an error-riddled week — and Tino Livramento can have a big impact with their marauding runs, while Alessandro Florenzi and Davide Calabria will need to give the visitors a similar threat.
With both teams chasing a win, I expect an open contest with scoring chances at both ends. A draw does nothing for either side, making the Over 2.5 worth a look.
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Newcastle vs AC Milan game info
| Location: | St. James' Park, Newcastle, England |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 13, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo |
| Weather: | The forecast calls for cold but dry conditions after scattered showers earlier in the day, and temperatures should dip into the mid-30s by kickoff. |
Newcastle vs AC Milan key injuries
Newcastle: Dan Burn D (Out), Nick Pope G (Out), Joe Willock M (Out), Harvey Barnes M (Out).
AC Milan: Rafael Leao F (Probable), Simon Kjaer D (Out), Marco Pellegrino D (Out), Pierre Kalulu D (Out), Malick Thiaw D (Out).
