On Wednesday we find out which of Newcastle and Arsenal will be playing at Wembley to contest the EFL Cup, with the second leg of the semi-final taking place under the floodlights at St James’ Park.
Newcastle won the first leg 2-0, putting all the pressure on Arsenal, but our Newcastle vs Arsenal predictions have Arsenal winning the game, but will it be enough to overcome the two-goal deficit and win the tie?
Read on for my free betting picks for Wednesday, February 5 with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount Plus.
Newcastle vs Arsenal picks and predictions
My best bet:
Arsenal moneyline (+118 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Wednesday is an important day in the seasons of both Newcastle and Arsenal with one of the two clubs cementing their spot in the EFL Cup final at Wembley next month.
For both clubs it would be a big achievement, allowing Newcastle a rare chance at a trophy, while further underlining a period of success for Mikel Arteta.
Newcastle are favorites to be playing under the famous Wembley arch thanks to the 2-0 lead that they bring into this game after an impressive performance away at the Emirates. Now they’re on home soil and need to ensure that Arsenal don’t win by enough goals to take that place at Wembley from them.
While it’s hard to know if Arsenal will be able to score enough to secure them an overall victory in this tie, they are a great value bet at +118 to win in the 90 minutes on Wednesday.
It’s often said that St James’ Park is a difficult place for opposition teams to play, but we’ve seen Newcastle lose in back-to-back games at the stadium ahead of Wednesday’s game. This past weekend they were defeated 2-1 by Fulham and last month they were thumped 4-1 by Bournemouth. Interestingly Eddie Howe’s team has seven Premier League defeats this season and the majority, four, have come at home.
Turning over a 2-0 deficit isn’t easy but Arsenal will be hugely confident given the strong vein of form that they’re in. They’ve won five of their last six, with the only exception being a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa. They’ve beaten hated rivals Spurs, had two Champions League wins, and most impressively, took Man City apart 5-1 this past Sunday. That game showed the potential of this team and it was one of their best performances this season. They have the Premier League’s second-best defense in terms of least goals conceded, and an attack that has managed to overcome the injury to Bukayo Saka.
The Gunners are riding a wave of confidence and playing at a great level, while Newcastle are experiencing a rough period. This is a game that Arteta’s men simply have to win and recent performances have shown that they have enough, both in attack and defense, to secure the win. That might not be enough to seal a spot at Wembley but they should get the win at St James’ Park.
Newcastle vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Arsenal moneyline
Arsenal -0.5 — 1H
Kai Havertz anytime goal
For the second leg, we’re taking Arsenal to be winning at halftime. The reason for this is the fact that Arsenal have to start this game fast. Newcastle are a good team with a strong defensive record, especially at home and to win this tie Arsenal will need to score early, which should set them up to take a lead into the halftime interval. Arsenal have scored first-half goals in five of their past six games in all competitions, including that 5-1 win over Man City on Sunday.
The final leg of our Same-Game Parlay is for Kai Havertz to score. The much-maligned German scored against Man City on Sunday but in truth he should have had more goals to his name, missing a clear opportunity and electing to pass in another great position. He’s scored a good amount of goals for Arsenal this season though and is going under the radar with 15 goals in all competitions. He’s the most dangerous man on the pitch and is likely to be on the scoresheet if Arsenal wins.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Newcastle vs Arsenal odds
Newcastle vs Arsenal live odds
 Newcastle |
 Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| +210 | Moneyline | +118 |
| +254 | Draw | +254 |
| Over 2.5 (-130) | Total | Under 2.5 (-130) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Newcastle vs Arsenal opening odds
- Moneyline: Newcastle +210 | Arsenal +118
- Draw: +254
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-130) | Under 2.5 (-130)
Newcastle vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
- Newcastle won the first leg in London 2-0.
- Newcastle have won 10 of their past 12 in all competitions.
- Newcastle’s five games since the first leg of this tie have all had Over 2.5 goals.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in five of Arsenal’s past six games in all competitions.
How to watch Newcastle vs Arsenal
| Location | St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-5-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | 46F, 11 mph winds, 10% PoP. |
Newcastle vs Arsenal key injuries
Newcastle: Jamaal Lascelles CB (Out), Callum Wilson STR (Out), Harvey Barnes FWR (Out), Joelinton MID (Questionable).
Arsenal: Ben White DEF (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu DEF (Out), Bukayo Saka RW (Out), Gabriel Jesus STR (Out), Neto GK (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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