Orlando City hopes to avoid a repeat of their last meeting with Inter Miami when the two sides face off Wednesday night.
The Lions have already lost five matches this season, just two fewer than all of 2023’s MLS campaign. They’ll hope to avoid a three-match home losing skid while getting some revenge for a 5-0 defeat earlier this season.
Lionel Messi and the Herons shredded Orlando’s defense in that match, but Messi’s been left out of the squad after picking up a knock this weekend. They’re riding a five-match winning streak and will hope to see it continue.
But there’s another streak Miami’s dealing with, and we explain how it plays into our betting favor in our MLS betting picks and Orlando City vs Inter Miami predictions on Wednesday, May 15.
Orlando City vs Inter Miami picks and predictions
My best bet:
Both teams to score in first half (+235 at TonyBet)
My analysis
There were a lot of ways I wanted to go with this match, but the absence of Lionel Messi causes a lot of concerns. So instead of stressing over who might or might not play, I decided to go for a big play and take advantage of an area where both teams struggle regardless of who is on the pitch.
Inter Miami’s won five straight matches in league play, a feat that’s even more impressive when you consider they’ve conceded first in all of those matches. While the first four came from early 1-0 holes, last week they were forced to storm back after conceding two goals in the opening 32 minutes. A pair of goals just before halftime flipped the script and they were able to find a third after halftime.
It also marked the fourth time in five matches that both Inter Miami and their opponents found the back of the net prior to halftime. Those five matches have seen a total of 12 goals scored in the opening 45 minutes. And given their opponent, there’s a decent chance we see it happen again Wednesday.
That’s because Orlando City also can’t seem to stop allowing early goals. Five of their last six league opponents have found the back of the net in the opening stanza, with all five getting on the board inside of 21 minutes. In their most recent home outing, they conceded within 60 seconds in a 1-0 defeat to Cincinnati.
But to their credit, the Lions have roared back to answer the bell on many occasions. It led to both teams scoring in the first half in three of their last five matches, including this weekend when they took a 2-1 lead into halftime before beating Philadelphia by a 3-2 scoreline.
Neither of these defenses are particularly good, which means their opponents don’t necessarily have to be at full strength to capitalize. Inter Miami continues to live on the edge, allowing way too many dangerous chances. Orlando has multiple forwards capable of punishing them on the counter attack.
The Herons already put five past Orlando in their first meeting, including three in a first half which Messi had no involvement in. And Orlando could be without three first-choice defenders, compounding their problems.
There are safer plays for this match, but there aren’t many that offer the kind of value this does. TonyBet’s price of +235 offers implied odds of less than 30% that both teams will score before halftime. Given both teams have already conceded 11 first-half goals this year, I’ll take those odds and not think twice.
Lionel Messi prop for tonight
Tom Bogert of The Athletic reported late Wednesday morning that Messi did not travel with the team to Orlando. As such, there are no Lionel Messi odds to wager on tonight.
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Orlando City vs Inter Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams to score in first half
Over 3.5
Inter Miami win or draw
I can’t bet on both teams scoring in the first half and not back there to be four or more goals scored in total. Orlando has already been involved in five matches this season with 4+ goals, and they’ve conceded multiple goals in four of their last five.
With or without Messi, there’s good value on Inter Miami getting a result here. Orlando’s won just one of their six MLS home outings, losing three times. That includes defeats in the last two home fixtures to Toronto and FC Cincinnati, both of whom reside in the Top 4 in the Eastern Conference.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orlando City vs Inter Miami odds
Orlando City vs Inter Miami live odds
Orlando City vs Inter Miami opening odds
- Moneyline: Orlando +188 | Miami +115
- Draw: +260
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Orlando City vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis
- Orlando City are favored at home, but only at +130. Miami’s second-favorite at +188, while the draw will net you +280. Messi’s status has caused serious movement, with the Herons opening at +115 favorites.
- Miami has won five straight matches in league play, while Orlando City has just three victories in total on the season.
- The total is juiced to the Over on the standard 2.5 market, with -190 or higher on offer. The Asian total of 3.0 is still favoring the Over with -135 available.
- Inter Miami’s scored 3+ goals in each of their last five matches, while Orlando City has conceded at least two goals in four of their last five.
Orlando City vs Inter Miami game info
| Location: | Inter & Co Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 15, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Weather: | 84F, 15-25 mph winds, PoP 32% |
Orlando City vs Inter Miami key injuries
Orlando City: Ramiro Enrique F (Out), Tahir Reid-Brown D (Out), Rafael Santos D (Doubtful), Robin Jansson D (Doubtful).
Inter Miami: Lionel Messi F (Out), Jordi Alba D (Questionable), Diego Gomez M (Out), Ian Fray D (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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