Real Madrid vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions: Slow Pace Expected In Second Leg of Quarterfinal

A stunning 3-1 victory in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal might have given Real Madrid the lead in the tie but will Chelsea be able to get back into the game when it visits Madrid?

Will Real secure yet another European semi-final spot or will the West London team pull off a historic comeback. Find out in our free Champions League betting picks and predictions miss for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea.

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Real Madrid vs Chelsea match odds

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Real Madrid vs Chelsea betting tips

• Prediction: Draw (+250)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (+110)
• Best bet: Casemiro to get booked (+160)

Predictions made on 4/11/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Real Madrid vs Chelsea game info

• Location: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
• Date: Tuesday, April 12, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Paramount+, fuboTV

Real Madrid vs Chelsea betting preview

Weather

Chelsea supporters won’t be enjoying the Spanish sun with the matchday likely to have rain all day in the build up to kick-off. It’ll have dried out by the time the match starts with temperatures in the high-50s.

Injuries

Real Madrid: Eden Hazard FW (Out), Luka Jovic ST (Out), Ferland Mendy LB (Questionable).
Chelsea:  Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Callum Hudson-Odoi LW (Out), Ross Barkley CM (Out), Romelu Lukaku ST (Out).

Real Madrid vs Chelsea predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

Tuesday sees Real Madrid welcoming Chelsea to Santiago Bernabeu in this huge Champions League quarterfinal second leg. Heading into the first leg tie at Stamford Bridge this felt like the closest tie overall of any at this stage but within 24 minutes Los Blancos had a 2-0 lead.

The game finished 3-1 with Kai Havertz’s consolation giving Chelsea a slight chance of pulling off an incredible turnaround and finding themselves in the next round. 

In previous years the three away goals for Real Madrid would likely have meant this fixture was over but thanks to the abolition of that rule we’re now set to have a huge game in Madrid. It’s still unlikely we see Chelsea pull off the great escape and progress, with Real -1200 to qualify for the next round, but it is possible.

Chelsea will need to do better at containing Karim Benzema than in the first leg when he left London with the match ball after a great hat trick. This season he’s scored 11 in eight Champions League games and 24 in 27 in La Liga.

Simply put, he’s on fire and Thomas Tuchel needs to find a way to keep him quiet which will be difficult with Vinicius Junior down the left flank. The Brazilian has taken a huge step forward this season and the chemistry he has with Benzema is top class.

Real Madrid will be hoping its midfield trio of Toni Kroos, Luke Modric, and Casemiro will have the experience and know-how to manage this game and never let Chelsea get within reach of the miracle.

With the lead now in its hands, it plays into the strengths of that trio and I can see it doing a great job of keeping the ball and not allowing Chelsea to get a foothold in the game.

However, their age and lack of pace could potentially be an issue and at times, such as against Barcelona in the most recent El Clasico, and the majority of both legs against PSG, they have been overrun by fitter and more mobile midfield units.

Both managers will stick with their favored formations, with Carlo Ancelotti sticking with 4-3-3 and Tuchel employing the three at the back that’s done him so well during his tenure with the club. Chelsea will need Reece James and Marcos Alonso to use the flanks to their advantage, supporting the attack and dropping in enough to help the backline too.

This really does feel like one of those games which could go either way. I’d back Real Madrid to get the job done and qualify for the next round but it wouldn’t shock me if Chelsea pulled off a win, even if it wasn’t enough to secure qualification to the Champions League semifinal stage.

I’m expecting the game to start tight with Chelsea pushing to get a goal as the game progresses. That does leave them open for the counter but as far as betting on this game goes I’d go down the middle, with the draw offering the best value.

Prediction: Draw (+250 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Odds makers don’t agree and it’s easy to see why after the 3-1 result in the first leg but I’m confident we’ll see Under 2.5 goals here. There’s no denying that both teams have attacking talent as we saw when Chelsea won 6-0 on Saturday but the game script is set up for a low-scoring game.

I’m expecting the matchup to start tight. Real Madrid doesn’t have to attack and just needs to control the game and avoid Chelsea scoring. Meanwhile, Chelsea can’t go gung-ho too early because if Real scores first on a counter then it’s game over.

With that in mind, I’d expect the game to become more expansive and open in the second half. I can see this ending 1-0 for either team or more likely 1-1. That obviously lends itself to backing Under 2.5 goals. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Full disclosure, Casemiro getting booked was my best bet in the first leg and it didn’t land but that doesn’t make me any less confident of it hitting here.

The 30-year-old Brazilian is a notorious yellow card magnet, often finding himself in the referee's book. That’s something that’s continued throughout his career and with the likes of Kroos and Modric losing a yard of pace it now means he’s often put in a position where he needs to make a tactical foul to slow down the opposition’s attacks.

There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll do it, and take the yellow card if needed on Tuesday.

If Real scores early it won’t land but if Chelsea looks remotely like getting back into the game then it’ll see Casemiro indulging in the dark arts and making sure it doesn't break on the Spanish team. He’s already had 15 yellows this season for his club, making it 82 yellows and two reds across his career. He’s a booking waiting to happen, back it.

Pick: Casemiro to get booked (+160 at Bet365)

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