Southampton vs Man City Picks and Predictions: City Holds Nothing Back with Shot after Shot

The final game on a big Saturday of Premier League action is Southampton vs Manchester City. The Saints head into the weekend dead bottom of the Premier League table while Man City are in second chasing down leaders Arsenal.

Man City will have an eye on midweek Champions League action but they can’t afford to drop points here in their pursuit of the Premier League title. Will they be able to do enough to secure three valuable points here, or could Southampton give their survival hopes a boost?

Don’t miss our Southampton vs Man City EPL picks and predictions to find out.

Southampton vs Man City best odds

Southampton vs Man City picks and predictions

The home side are at rock bottom of the Premier League and head into the weekend two points adrift of 19th and four points away from safety. With their relegation rivals playing before this game, there’s a real chance that gap could grow and increase pressure on Southampton.

On the flip side of that, Saturday’s visitors can win this game and close the gap on Arsenal, piling the pressure on the Gunners who play on Sunday. 

The reality is that it’s very hard to find great value bets when the bottom-placed team in the Premier League face the league’s highest scorers (coming into the week) and arguably the best team on the planet.

That said I’ve taken a deep dive into every major betting market across the big sportsbooks and there’s one which really leaps out. That bet is for Man City to have over 15.5 shots at a team. The odds of -138 aren’t massive, but other books have it at -175, which is probably closer to what it should be.

If you’ve watched the Premier League in recent years it won’t be a shock to suggest backing Man City to have plenty of shots. They’ve scored more goals than anyone else in the Premier League and have incredible attacking talent in the squad.

Erling Haaland, Man City’s chief goalscorer, is doubtful for this game. Missing their star striker shouldn’t be a concern though, as his backup Julian Alvarez has six Premier League goals this season despite just starting seven games, including his goal last week against Liverpool in a game Mn City managed 17 shots.

Manchester City have taken more shots per game than anybody else in the Premier League this season, averaging 16.5 per game. Southampton have given up an average of 12.6 shots per game this season and in their last game against a team in the top half of the Premier League (Tottenham) they gave up 17.

Man City are far more dangerous and skilled in attack than Spurs, and when these teams met last in the Premier League back in October, City had a total of 21 shots.

Given the quality at Man City’s disposal and the struggles of Southampton, it’s worth backing the Premier League’s bottom team to allow 16 or more shots.

My best bet: Man City Over 15.5 shots (-138 at bet365)

Southampton vs Man City side analysis

Southampton will head into this match in their favored 4-4-2, and they have a relatively fit squad — although they’d be stronger with Mohammed Salisu available for selection, particularly at the back. The central defensive duo is likely to be Jan Bednarek and Duje Caleta-Car but it’s the fullbacks and in particular, right back Kyle Walkers-Peters who are most in danger.

Walkers-Peters will be up against Jack Grealish who has been exceptional in recent months and could tear him apart. In the middle of the park, it’ll be James Ward-Prowse and Romeo Lavia.

Man City’s lineup is hard to predict at the best of times but with Bayern Munich next week, it’s even harder than usual. I think we’re likely to see Julian Alvarez up front with Grealish and Mahrez on either side of him.

Kevin De Bruyne should get the start with City really needing to win here to put pressure on Arsenal, and deeper in midfield we’ll see Rodri alongside either Ilkay Gundogan or Kalvin Phillips. City will have a lot of the possession in this one and have to break Southampton down, so we’ll probably see the team’s best defensive ball players start, which means another outing for John Stones at right back.

Southampton vs Man City Over/Under analysis

We’re expecting a lot of shots with our best bet and the bookies are expecting a lot of goals too, with Over 2.5 goals at -160. Man City have had Over 2.5 goals in 64.3% of their games this season, but it’s worth noting that number drops to 42.9% when they’re away from home.

For Southampton, it’s a mixed bag. Out of 14 home games they’re even, hitting Over 2.5 guys in exactly half of those matches. Given that I’m confident that we’ll see a number of shots for City I’d also probably lean towards backing the Over, especially since they've scored 17 goals in their past three games in all competitions. That said, I won’t be backing it at odds of -160, when I think Over 15.5 shots is probably a safer option at marginally better odds.

Southampton vs Man City game info

Southampton vs Man City key injuries

Southampton: Tino Livramento RB (Out), Armel Bella-Kotchap CB (Out), Che Adams ST (Questionable), Mohammed Salisu CB (Questionable).
Man City: Phil Foden FWR (Out), Erling Haaland ST (Questionable).

Southampton vs Man City recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Southampton	D-L-D-W-L
Man City	W-W-W-D-W

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