Switzerland vs Spain Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Spain's Relentless Attack Yields Great Chance to Advance

The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup group stage is complete, and it’s now win or go home as Switzerland and Spain kick off the Round of 16 on Saturday morning.

The Swiss managed to finish atop Group A on the back of three clean sheets from keeper Gaelle Thalmann. They’ll need her to continue to keep their scoresheet flawless against a Spanish side that fell 4-0 to Japan to finish second in Group C, but managed to take an astonishing 78 shots in three matches.  

Those two things play a key role in our betting angle for Switzerland vs Spain, and we explain why in our picks and predictions for Saturday, August 5. 

Switzerland vs Spain odds

Switzerland		Spain
+850	Moneyline	-290
+350	Draw	+350
Over 2.5 (-110)	Total	Under 2.5 (-125)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on August 4, 2023.

Switzerland vs Spain picks and predictions

Depending on where you are in North America, it’ll be the wee hours of Saturday morning or the end of Friday night when the Swiss and Spanish sides take the pitch. But when they do, it’s likely going to become a contest where one team lays siege to the other’s penalty area, leading to a terrific value for our best bet.  

While Gaelle Thalmann has kept three clean sheets for Switzerland so far in the tournament, she’s only faced eight shots on target. This is despite the Swiss opponents attempting 30 shots, with Norway and New Zealand combining for 27.

Why are we singling out those two countries? Because unlike the match against the Philippines, Switzerland didn’t dominate possession or chances in those fixtures. Possession was split evenly, and they were outshot 12-3 by New Zealand in the final match as they held on for dear life to advance.

That is pretty much what they’re going to have to do against Spain on Saturday morning. Spain opened the tournament with one of the most one-sided performances in Women’s World Cup history as superstar Alexia Putellas and company put on a show. 

Their 3-0 victory saw them set records, according to Opta, with 46 shots, 117 touches in their opponent’s penalty area, and 80% possession. Much like the Spanish men have exhibited in the past on the international level, their female compatriots love to keep the ball, cycle possession, and pepper their opponents with shots.

One stat that wasn’t mentioned was corner kicks. Spain took set pieces from the corner flag on 22 different occasions, and they followed that up with a performance against Zambia where they amassed another 22 shots and nine corners in a 5-0 victory.

En route to their three clean sheets, the Swiss threw their bodies in front of everything they could. This led to New Zealand attempting five corners, and Norway taking seven. 

FanDuel is allowing me to bet on Spain to equal Norway’s corner total for +144 odds. To me, that’s not only too good of a number to pass up, I’m putting two units on the play. The same line is priced at +110 at other books, which is why it’s my best bet as a terrific value bet.  

My best bet: Spain Over 6.5 corners (+144 at FanDuel)

Switzerland vs Spain same-game parlay

Spain Over 6.5 corners

Spain 6+ shots on target

Under 3.5 cards

Spain to qualify for next round

+482 at FanDuel

Spain’s ability to put pressure on Switzerland’s penalty area is going to lead to the high corner count, and it also gives you a pathway to a solid same-game parlay opportunity.

Norway was able to register five shots on the Swiss goal, and Spain put at least 12 shots on target against both Costa Rica and Zambia. Jenni Hermoso of Spain leads all players in the tournament with six shots on goal through three matches. As the Swiss wear down from the pressure, expect Hermoso and Spain to find some cracks and get at six shots through on goal. 

The Swiss have also shown they can defend without getting booked, having picked up just two yellow cards through three matches. Both came in their opener against the Philippines. On the other side, Spain have also had a name taken just twice, both in the loss to Japan. Just one of their six combined matches have seen three bookings, and I doubt this match eclipses that number either. 

The Japanese showed how to beat Spain in the final group stage match, as they scored four goals on seven shots. They hurt Spain repeatedly on the break, as the Spanish have the third-most high turnovers of any nation in the tournament. 

Unfortunately for the Swiss, they’ve struggled to score, and don’t have the weapons to hurt them the way Japan did. For that reason, Spain will advance when it’s all said and done. While it’s priced at -800, it does bump the parlay up from around +400 to over +480.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Switzerland vs Spain spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s no question who the favorite is in this one. Spain are -800 to advance, and they’re priced anywhere between -250 and -300 to do so in regulation via the 3-way moneyline. A Swiss 3-way victory is paying as high as +800, with the draw being offered at up to +380.

The draw offers some strong value at that price. In fact, not only have seven of Switzerland’s last nine matches ended in draws, five of those have been 0-0 exact scores — which pays +1200 at FanDuel and might be worth a look.

This will be a tight affair with both teams seeking their first-ever quarterfinal appearance. Spain will likely be a bit more cautious given how Japan exposed them, and the Swiss are able to frustrate their opponents for long stretches. Regardless, Spain’s talent level is likely going to be too much in the end, and they’ll go through one way or another. 

The Under is getting bet slightly more than the Over heading into this match. While all three of Spain’s matches thus far have featured at least three goals, there have been two total in Switzerland’s three outings. 

Given how compact they’re going to be, and the likelihood of Spain being more cautious, I’d shade towards the Under as well. That said, I’m likely going to avoid it altogether. 

Switzerland vs Spain game info

Switzerland vs Spain key injuries

Switzerland: None.
Spain: Ivana Andres D (Questionable).

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