Tottenham vs Chelsea Picks and Predictions: Thick Tension in Low-Scoring Match

The final game of this weekend’s Premier League slate is Tottenham vs. Chelsea. There’s no love lost in this London derby, with both teams hating one another. However, these teams share something in common, with each failing to live up to expectations this season.

Which of these London rivals will come out on top in this Premier League matchup? Don’t miss our Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea picks and predictions for Sunday, February 26.

Tottenham vs Chelsea best odds

Tottenham vs Chelsea picks and predictions

Sunday’s Premier League action gives us Spurs vs. Chelsea, one of London’s biggest derby games in recent years. Who can forget the famous ‘Battle of the Bridge’ back in 2016, which saw 13 yellow cards given out — and, in truth, it probably should have been more.

Things were heated when they met back in August, with Spurs grabbing a 2-2 draw in the 95th minute. There were five yellows with both managers getting sent off after the final whistle. Antonio Conte won’t be facing Thomas Tuchel this week, but we can expect the intensity of the rivalry to remain.

Going into the weekend, Spurs were sat in fourth with Chelsea firmly midtable in 10th. Neither team has matched their ambitions this season, and both Conte and Graham Potter are under pressure, not only for results but because of the manner of their performances, something that plays into our best bet for the game, that we’ll see Under 2.5 goals.

In truth, watching both Tottenham and Chelsea can be hard work at the moment, they don’t look overly expansive in their play, playing with too much caution and struggling to score.

How Spurs are struggling to score is surprising given that they have the likes of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min up front, but there have been Under 2.5 goals in all four of Spurs’ home games in the Premier League after the World Cup. In those four games at Hotspur Stadium, they’ve scored just three goals, with the team surprisingly scoring more when they’re playing on the road. Now they face a Chelsea team who have kept a clean sheet in five of their past six games at Tottenham in all competitions.

Chelsea have seen a huge amount of low-scoring games in the Premier League this season. Only two of their last 15 games in the league have seen three or more goals, which makes the -124 available on Under 2.5 goals look very appealing. 

One of the big issues for Chelsea has been their own scoring, and while they reinforced their squad in January with a number of signings, it’s a major concern that their top EPL scorer, Kai Havertz, has just five goals.

They have been fairly good defensively though, giving up just seven goals in nine games since the World Cup, even if they’ve only scored five of their own.

We’re expecting Under 2.5 goals here and it’ll continue a trend with Under 2.5 goals landing in five of the past six meetings between these teams at Hotspur Stadium.

My best bet: Under 2.5 Goals (-124 at FanDuel)

Tottenham vs Chelsea side analysis

The odds for both Spurs and Chelsea are close, showing that the sportsbooks are unsure of who wins. The one thing we can realistically expect is that there won’t be many goals between the teams.

Spurs will come into this playing Conte’s preferred formation, a 3-4-3, with Ben Davies and Emerson Royal playing as wingbacks outside of these central defenders. In the middle, we’ll see Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg partnered by Oliver Skipp, who has the place of the injured Rodrigo Bentancur. Up front, it’ll be Harry Kane through the middle with any two of Son, Dejan Kulusevski, and Richarlison outside.

Potter’s Chelsea will be a 4-2-3-1 with the manager likely to make changes at the back following their 1-0 loss to Southampton. Thiago Silva and the excellent January singing Benoit Badiashile will be at the heart of the defense, with Reece James recalled to right back, potentially on the opposite flank to Ben Chilwell.

Other January additions Enzo Fernandez and Joao Felix will continue to be integral to Chelsea’s hopes, with both playing well since arriving in West London. They need to see an improvement from Ukranian Mykhailo Mudryk, who has looked poor in recent weeks since his brilliant debut from the bench against Liverpool.

Chelsea come into this having won their last three Premier League games at Spurs, but they’re in poor form and I’d lean towards backing Spurs to win a tight encounter here.

Tottenham vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis

I’ve already covered my thoughts on the total market in the best bet section of this piece, so we’ll going to look instead at the both teams to score market, in which “No” is available at +104 — which is the way that I’d lean in this market.

BTTS No has landed in 50% of Spurs home games this season but it’s landed in all four of their home games post-World Cup. It’s also been a market that has done very well for Chelsea bettors in recent months. Only one team has scored in eight of Chelsea’s past 11 in the Premier League.

Tottenham vs Chelsea game info

Tottenham vs Chelsea key injuries

Tottenham: Hugo Lloris GK (Out), Yves Bissouma CM (Out), Rodrigo Bentancur CM (Out), Ryan Sessegnon LB (Out).
Chelsea: Armando Broja STR (Out), Christian Pulisic FWR (Out), N’Golo Kante CM (Out), Edouard Mendy GK (Out), Cesar Azpilicueta RB (Out).

Tottenham vs Chelsea recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Tottenham	W-L-W-L-L
Chelsea	L-L-L-D-D

Tottenham vs Chelsea weather

A cloudy day in London will mean temperatures in the mid-40s, with winds gusting at 15 mph and just a 10% chance of precipitation. 

Pages related to this topic