Tottenham vs Newcastle Picks and Predictions: Spurs' Downward Trend Continues

Sunday afternoon will see two teams fighting to solidify their positions near the top of the table as Newcastle United travels to the capitol for an important match with Tottenham Hotspur.

The Magpies are coming off a 1-0 win over Everton, and a win could keep them within touching distance of a Top-4 spot. Meanwhile, Spurs are licking their wounds following a 2-0 defeat at Manchester United, and know they need to win in order to keep pace with Arsenal and Manchester City in the EPL title race.

Both teams are dealing with key injuries but one is more suited to handle them than the other. Find out who in our Tottenham Hotspur vs. Newcastle United picks and predictions for Sunday, October 23.

Tottenham vs Newcastle best odds

Tottenham vs Newcastle picks and predictions

Tottenham returns home following a mid-week match at Old Trafford that saw it tactically outmatched.

Erik ten Hag did a phenomenal job of setting the Red Devils to press Tottenham’s midfield and prevent the side from advancing the ball to Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son. They were fortunate to not lose by more goals, as Hugo Lloris denied Manchester United time and again with phenomenal saves as Spurs were outshot 28-9.

The biggest issue for Tottenham right now is the lack of a creative outlet in the midfield. The long-term injury to Dejan Kulusevski has left it without his playmaking ability, and the absence of Richarlison against Manchester United was a glaring one.

Without either forward, Antonio Conte shifted the formation from a 3-4-3 to a 3-5-2 mid-week, but it didn’t help at all as the side continued to make sloppy errors and turn the ball over in precarious spots.

Kane and Son have simply not looked like themselves early in the campaign, and while Kane has scored nine goals, he has just one assist thus far after registering a combined 23 over the previous two campaigns. He also has just one goal from open play in his last four Premier League matches, with his other two goals in that span coming from the penalty spot. 

Newcastle won’t make things any easier on Sunday. Eddie Howe has his side defending exceptionally well, with their nine goals allowed the fewest in the league. The Magpies have kept a league-high five clean sheets — joint with Manchester City — and their 2-1 defeat at Anfield is the only time they’ve failed to take a result through 11 Premier League matches. That includes a 0-0 draw last weekend at Manchester United, and a 3-3 draw against Manchester City in August.

While the injury to Joelinton in their 1-0 win over Everton on Wednesday hurts it in midfield, this is still a Newcastle side with plenty of pace and a stout defense. It also possesses a set-piece magician in right-back Kieran Trippier, who leads all defenders with 26 chances created this season. Goalkeeper Nick Pope ranks fourth in the league in xG differential at +2.2 and only Everton is allowing fewer goals per shot this season.

Newcastle has won more away Premier League fixtures against Tottenham than any other club in their history, and they’ve captured a result in two of their last three visits to Tottenham’s home ground. Look for them to do so yet again on Sunday.

Give me the hotter team with a terrific defensive record against the team struggling to create goals and simply getting outplayed in the midfield, with the likely sloppy weather causing real problems for a team that’s already making a lot of mistakes with the ball.

My best bet: Newcastle double chance (-135 at FanDuel)

Tottenham vs Newcastle side analysis

Tottenham has won all five of their home Premier League fixtures this season, but four of those wins came over teams that currently sit 14th or lower in the table.

Their only match against a team in the top half of the table was a 2-1 win over Fulham, a newly-promoted side. Spurs have won 10 straight matches in all competitions at home, which is the rest they've been favored since this line opened. 

Newcastle has lost just once in their five matches away from home this season in the Premier League, drawing three to go along with a 4-1 win over Fulham. They’ve kept two away clean sheets, and have allowed just one team to score multiple goals.

Tottenham has lost just once in their last 10 meetings with Newcastle, while the visitors have lost just once in their last three visits to Tottenham. 

Tottenham vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis

Tottenham has been involved in three straight matches with two or fewer goals, but the side has scored at least two goals in each of their last three home matches. It’s seen at least three goals scored in three of their five home matches this campaign, but just five of 11 on the season overall.

Meanwhile, the visitors continue to be involved in either very low-scoring contests, or out-and-out shootouts. Four of Newcastle’s last six matches in the league have seen two or fewer goals scored, while the other two saw at least five put on the board. Just one of 11 matches has featured either three or four goals scored, while they’ve been involved in three scoreless draws.

The total of 2.5 in this match is split evenly in terms of which side the books favor, but the historical trends favor the Over. Each of the last three meetings between the sides in all competitions has seen three or more goals scored.

That said, last year’s 5-1 win for Tottenham ended a run of four straight home matches against Newcastle with two or fewer goals in the contest.

Tottenham vs Newcastle game info

Tottenham vs Newcastle key injuries

Tottenham: Richarlison F (Out), Dejan Kulusevski F (Out), Lucas Moira F (Questionable).
Newcastle: Joelinton M (Out), Allan Saint-Maximin F (Out), Aleksander Isak F (Out). 

Tottenham vs Newcastle weather

Sunday afternoon will feature plenty of rain in London, as there are heavy thunderstorms in the forecast. While winds won’t be a concern, there’s better than a 50% chance of rain throughout the entire match window, and the pitch will likely be quite sloppy at times. 

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