The USA looks to keep their perfect CONCACAF Nations League home record intact and advance to the semifinals when they face Jamaica on Monday night.
The Yanks got the 1-0 win in the first leg as Mauricio Pochettino won his competitive debut with the USMNT, while Jamaica’s poor offensive showing leaves them in a difficult spot if they hope to avoid elimination.
Find out where the best betting value lies in my USA vs. Jamaica predictions and free betting picks for Monday, November 18.
USA vs Jamaica picks and predictions
My best bet:
USA & BTTS — No (+121 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Jamaica did everything it could on Thursday night to get a result, but the Americans held firm in the 1-0 win to come home with an advantage. Ricardo Pepi’s fifth-minute strike was all the scoring the Americans would need, and Matt Turner’s first-half penalty save allowed the Yanks to secure the win.
The Reggae Boyz outshot the United States 12-6 on the night, but only two efforts were put on goal — with just one coming from open play. The Jamaican attack simply lacked the final thrust, and the poor form of Leon Bailey certainly didn’t help matters.
Pochettino’s side had nearly 60% possession but were stymied much of the night by Jamaica’s 5-4-1 setup and the atrocious pitch quality. The latter won’t be an issue in St Louis, and that is going to benefit the Americans substantially. It’s no secret that many CONCACAF nations have poor pitch conditions and the ability of the USMNT to move the ball quickly is key to its success in the final third.
Mason Holgate was sent off late in the first leg with a second yellow, and his absence in the center of Jamaica’s defense is a huge blow. He’s easily their top central defender, and it will give the Americans another advantage as they’ll be whipping in crosses from Christian Pulisic and Antonee Robinson.
Tim Weah’s return from suspension is also big, as it allows some flexibility for Pochettino. Yunus Musah may get a rest from the start, or he might slot back into central midfield given the first-half injury to Johnny Cardoso on Thursday. It’s also likely Gianluca Busio gets a start, playing just a few hours away from his former MLS club in Kansas City.
Whoever Poch rolls with, they’re going to be at a serious advantage. Their talent level is vastly superior, they’ll have their fans backing them, and Pochettino will have them set up to neutralize the Jamaican counter-attack.
The Americans have outscored their opponents 17-1 in their last six CONCACAF Nations League home fixtures. That one goal was scored by Jamaica back in March, and it came in the first minute. And they managed just two shots on goal over the next 119 minutes.
They’ve also won every single match at home since the inception of this competition, and that won’t change here. Take the Americans to get the win while keeping a clean sheet.
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USA vs Jamaica odds
USA vs Jamaica live odds
 USA |
 Jamaica |
|
|---|---|---|
| -228 | Moneyline | +520 |
| +309 | Draw | +309 |
| Over 2.5 (-134) | Total | Under 2.5 (-112) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
USA vs Jamaica opening odds
- Moneyline: USA -228 | Jamaica +520
- Draw: +309
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
USA vs Jamaica side and Over/Under analysis
- The USA is heavily favored on the 3-way money line, with -228 odds. A draw is priced at +309, while an unlikely Jamaican upset is sitting at +520.
- While the total for Thursday was leaning heavily towards the Under, this match is the exact opposite. The Over 2.5 line sits at -134 while the Under is priced at -112.
- Past results would lead you to taking the Over, but there’s some value on the Under here. Pochettino values a clean sheet and he’s going to need to protect some players like Pulisic by getting them out of the match earlier ahead of traveling back to Europe. The wind could also play a factor in disrupting the game.
USA vs Jamaica game info
| Location: | Energizer Park, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 11-18-2024 |
| Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo |
| Weather: | 64F, 20-30 mph winds, 55% PoP. |
USA vs Jamaica key injuries
USA: Johnny Cardoso M (Out), Aidan Morris M (Out), Gio Reyna M (Out), Tyler Adams M (Out), Folarin Balogun F (Out).
Jamaica: Michail Antonio F (Questionable), Mason Holgate D (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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