Valencia hopes to rebound from a rough La Liga campaign from a season ago when they host Barcelona on Saturday.
A ninth-place finish was far from what was expected of Ruben Baraja’s side, and they bolstered their attack with the addition of Rafa Mir. However, Barcelona have dominated this matchup —
having gone unbeaten in the last eight meetings — and will look to get off to a strong start.
Our Valencia vs. Barcelona predictions and free betting picks below explain why you should expect plenty of offense on Saturday.
Valencia vs Barcelona picks and predictions
My best bet:
Over 2.5 + Both teams to score (+120 at Betano)
My analysis
Neither of these teams come into Saturday’s match with a fully fit squad, and the absences are significant on both sides. That presents an opportunity for us to cash in on what should be a clash of contrasting styles and plenty of chances for mistakes.
Flick wants to play a very high line and pressure opponents, which he had Barcelona doing often during the preseason. However, his midfield needs to be able to maintain possession and that will be tricky to do with Pedri, Frenkie de Jong, and Gavi all out of the picture.
In addition, star defender Ronald Araujo is still injured. That means playing the high line becomes even riskier, especially when Barcelona turns the ball over. It’s a big reason the Catalan side conceded eight goals in their four preseason fixtures.
Valencia don’t have the greatest defense, but they’re going to try to hit on the counter and they’ve got the weapons to do so. Even if they were at full strength, I’d struggle to see them keeping a clean sheet, but they’ll be attempting to do so without Mouctar Diakhaby and Jose Gaya.
Three of Valencia’s last four friendlies featured 3+ goals with scoring from both teams, and only Barcelona’s recent 3-0 loss to Monaco saw them fail to match that feat. Barcelona has plenty of attacking firepower with Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, and Lamine Yamal leading the line, and I expect they’ll find the back of the net more than once.
That said, they’re likely to leak a goal at some point. They’ll have young, inexperienced midfielders playing on the road in a hostile environment, and they’ll be prone to making mistakes. That works for us, as we’ll combine three goals with both teams scoring at plus-money odds for a nice profit.
Valencia vs Barcelona same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5
Both teams to score: Yes
Hugo Doro 1+ shot on target
Barcelona moneyline
Hugo Doro scored 13 of Valencia’s paltry 40 goals in La Liga last season. While doing so, he averaged 0.8 shots on target per 90 minutes played, and his 43.9% accuracy rate was one of the best marks on the team.
He attempted three shots in Valencia’s first meeting with Barcelona without an effort on goal, but the return leg saw him put both attempts on target. Duro should get space to take aim on the counter and I like him to test Marc-Andre ter Stegen.
Barcelona’s attack will be far too much for Valencia to handle. They’re missing two starting defenders and have beaten the Spanish giants just once in their last 17 meetings at the Estadio de Mestalla. The Catalans will take the victory once again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Valencia vs Barcelona odds
Valencia vs Barcelona live odds
Valencia vs Barcelona opening odds
- Moneyline: Valencia +300 | Barcelona -138
- Draw: +275
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (+100)
Valencia vs Barcelona side and Over/Under analysis
- Barcelona are -133 favorites on the 3-way moneyline. Valencia is third choice at +375, with the draw priced at +275.
- Valencia are 4-0-0 in their first La Liga home game over the past four seasons.
- The Over is priced at -122, with Under 2.5 coming in at even money.
- Three of the last four meetings have featured two or fewer goals.
Valencia vs Barcelona game info
| Location: | Mestalla, Valencia, Spain |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-17-2024 |
| Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
| Weather: | Very warm with clear skies. |
Valencia vs Barcelona key injuries
Valencia: Jose Gaya D (Out), Mouctar Diakhaby D (Out), Jaume Domenech GK (Out), Fran Perez M (Out).
Barcelona: Ronald Araujo D (Out), Gavi M (Out), Frenkie de Jong M (Out), Pedri M (Doubtful), Ansu Fati F (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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