Tuesday gives us the second leg of the Villarreal vs. Liverpool semifinal in the Champions League.
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool won 2-0 in the first leg and now have one foot in the final, which takes place at the end of May. Can Unai Emery inspire his team to create a memorable comeback on their home turf?
It’s going to be a tough ask but it’s not impossible. Don’t miss our Villarreal vs. Liverpool tips and predictions to see how it plays out.
Villarreal vs Liverpool match odds
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Villarreal vs Liverpool betting tips
Predictions made on 5/2/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Villarreal vs Liverpool game info
• Location: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal, Spain
• Date: Tuesday, May 3, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Villarreal vs Liverpool betting preview
Weather
A rainy day in Spain will see wet playing conditions, with a strong wind, although temperatures in the mid-60s won’t make things too difficult.
Injuries
Villarreal: Alberto Moreno LB (Out), Francis Coquelin DM (Questionable), Gerard Moreno STR (Questionable), Yeremi Pino RM (Questionable).
Liverpool: Roberto Firmino STR (Questionable), Curtis Jones CM (Questionable).
Villarreal vs Liverpool predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Tuesday gives us the first of this week’s two Champions League semifinal second legs, a tie between hosts Villarreal and Liverpool. The Spaniards defeated 2-0 in the first leg at Anfield and frankly, outplayed.
Now they’re back on their own turf and manager Unai Emery will be hoping that his team can mount one of the greatest Champions League comebacks ever and secure passage to the final. That is, I’m afraid to say, not going to happen.
While there’s always a chance of a great upset, the reality is that it’s going to take a miracle for Villarreal to reach the final. That doesn’t mean they can’t win this game, just that the 2-0 aggregate score is unsurmountable. Even the most die-hard Villarreal fan would accept it’s very unlikely and a Liverpool goal would surely seal their place in the final.
Villarreal’s achievement to reach this stage, in a small town of just 50,000 people is truly incredible and they can be very proud of their team. It’s just unfortunate that they’ve bumped into Liverpool. Right now Liverpool, and Premier League rivals Man City, are the two best teams on the planet and by some margin.
Jurgen Klopp managed to rest some of his stars in their 1-0 Premier League win over Newcastle at the weekend and we’ll see him select his best XI here.
That means we’ll see Ibrahima Konate partner Virgil van Dijk at the heart of defense and we’ll see Mohamed Salah, Thiago, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Fabinho recalled to the starting lineup.
The performances of Thiago have had Liverpool fans in delight over the past month with the Spaniard controlling the games and showcasing some of his incredible technique. If he’s at his brilliant best then you can say goodbye to any hopes for Villarreal.
His creativity and his range of passing make Liverpool’s incredible front three even more dangerous. That front three of Salah, Luis Diaz, and Sadio Mane should all start here, with Diaz clearly being superior to Diego Jota or Roberto Firmino, if he were fit.
Unai Emery will look to stifle Liverpool’s 4-3-3 by playing two banks of four with a 4-4-1-1 and he’ll need his team at their best to even hold hope of winning this. Etienne Capoue and Dani Parejo in midfield will need to be able to break up Liverpool’s attacks while also helping aid the forwards.
It looks like Spanish international Gerard Moreno will miss the game here and that really is a gigantic loss. He’s only scored 13 goals this season but he’s struggled with fitness and has missed a lot of domestic fixtures. That should mean we see the pacey Dutchman, Arnaut Danjuma, playing through the middle or potentially even Paco Alacer, who may get a rare appearance.
Liverpool’s decision to rest players at the weekend will have made Unai Emery very worried. With a 2-0 aggregate lead, he might have hoped that we’d see Klopp rest some names here but it’s very clear he won’t.
We’re going to see a full-strength lineup here, even with a Premier League clash against Spurs coming up on the weekend.
The Champions League is the biggest prize in club football and Liverpool are going for it. That makes the -140 on Liverpool winning this game look like huge value.
Prediction: Liverpool (-140 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
At +122, we’ll be backing Under 2.5 goals here. In the first leg, we backed Under 2.5 goals at +140 which came in after the game finished 2-0. Despite Liverpool’s great ability in front of goal, it's the right play.
Liverpool should win this game and when they get the lead, I’d expect them to just control the game and ride it out for a satisfactory conclusion. With Van Dijk and Konate at the back, it’s going to be very difficult for Villarreal to find many goalscoring opportunities, even more so if Gerard Moreno isn’t healthy enough to feature.
It wouldn’t be a shock if this game finished 2-0 as the first leg and the game script makes that very possible. Villarreal aren’t great goalscorers, ranking fifth in La Liga with 54 goals scored and seventh in shots per game, managing just 12.2. They also won’t be able to dominate possession like they do in the majority of their domestic games.
Back the Under. It's great value once again.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+122 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Originally, I had planned to recommend betting on Draw/Liverpool in the halftime/fulltime market, which is a great price at +390. While I think that is a great wager, I simply had to use this section to reiterate what incredible value you’re getting on Liverpool at -140 to win the game. For that reason, it has to be my best bet.
Liverpool were -350 to win the first leg and are now -140. There are two reasons for that, firstly the game is being played in Villarreal and also with a 2-0 lead. While Liverpool don't need to win this match, I'd argue that in resting his best players against Newcastle, it’s given us a very strong indication we’ll see Liverpool’s best lineup here. That makes that -140 well worth backing.
I really hate to suggest anything under EVEN money but -140 implies just a 58.3% chance that Liverpool win at El Madrigal. I’m sorry, but a full-strength Liverpool squad have a much higher probability than that, regardless of having an aggregate advantage. It’s not the most fun wager but the value here is massive.
Pick: Liverpool (-140 at DraftKings)
