What appeared to be another aimless, futile season for Newcastle United got off to a quick start on a beautiful mid-August day at St. James' Park, as Callum Wilson put the EPL betting underdogs ahead against West Ham in the fifth minute of their season opener.
West Ham would go on to win that day, 4-2, while the following six games for Newcastle would result in just three points. With an absentee owner, an incompetent manager, and a talent-poor squad, it was appearing Wilson's goal would be the high-point of another meaningless season.
And then it all changed.
Saturday will see Newcastle and West Ham, featured in our picks and predictions, meet again, this time at the London Stadium and with the visitor's circumstances vastly different. New owners have breathed life into the club and city, while new manager Eddie Howe has their play and league standing improved, with three wins in a row and more positive results ahead.
West Ham vs Newcastle match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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West Ham vs Newcastle betting tips
Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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West Ham vs Newcastle game info
• Location: London Stadium, London, England
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock, DAZN
West Ham vs Newcastle betting preview
Weather
Rain is in the forecast throughout Saturday, though expected to ease up around kickoff at the London Stadium. Temperatures are expected to be around 45 degrees Fahrenheit in the afternoon.
Injuries
West Ham: Kurt Zouma CB (Questionable), Angelo Ogbonna CB (Out).
Newcastle: Kieran Trippier RB (Out), Javier Manquillo RB (Out), Federico Fernandez CB (Out), Matt Ritchie RM (Out), Callum Wilson ST (Out).
West Ham vs Newcastle predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Take a brief look at the Premier League table and you would be forgiven for thinking West Ham are a lock to take all three points on Saturday. West Ham have been in the Top 4 fight all season long and currently sit fifth, while Newcastle only just pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, sitting 17th. The hosts have a goal difference of +11 and an expected goal difference of +3.7. The visitors, meanwhile, boast ugly marks of -19 and -15.9 in the same metrics.
However, to analyze these two from a season-long perspective would be to do a disservice to the work Howe has done in turning Newcastle's season around. In the 12 games Howe has been in charge, Newcastle have taken 16 points from a possible 36 (compared to five points from their first 11) with their four defeats coming to City, Liverpool, Leicester City, and Arsenal.
They've been improved both going forward and in defense, with their negative xG difference nearly halved since Howe has been in charge. And, perhaps most importantly, they bolstered a stale squad, making key additions in defense, midfield, and at striker in the January window.
Newcastle's form has been improved to the point where it isn't far off West Ham's over the same period. The Hammers have taken 18 points from a possible 36 in their last 12, with losses to Arsenal, Southampton, Leeds, and Manchester United. That same stretch features an xG difference nearly three goals worse than their season-long mark, at just +0.4. Put simply, the level of these two clubs over the most recent half of the season hasn't been far off.
That, in itself, is a reason to look to the draw here and the value that comes with it. So too is the heart of Newcastle's recent revival, which has come following a switch to a three-man midfield. The additional body in the center of the park has allowed Newcastle far greater control and stability, with winger Ryan Fraser dropping in to allow them to defend in two banks of four out of possession, while the trio often have a numerical advantage in midfield when in possession.
Newcastle's fresh tactics will face one of the stiffest tests in the country Saturday against West Ham's phenomenal midfield duo of Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek but the extra body will be a huge help — especially with attacking midfielders Manuel Lanzizi and Said Benrahma's tendency to stay high up the pitch.
They should be able to remain involved in the flow of the game and, along with improved performances at both ends, scrap with a tough West Ham side to split the points on Saturday.
Prediction: Draw (+288)
Over/Under analysis
For all of Newcastle's improvements, they failed to tighten up defensively until a recent five-match stretch in which they conceded just three goals. That, however, coincided with the arrival of England right back Kieran Trippier, who has effectively transformed their backline through his ability and presence alone. That is deeply unfortunate for the Toon, as Trippier suffered a broken foot last weekend that will keep him out for the next two months.
Trippier's injury coincided with an injury to versatile fullback Javier Manquillo, which means Newcastle will be down to a last-ditch option in Emil Krafth at right back on Saturday. That weakness on the flanks is of huge danger against a West Ham team stocked with talented wide attackers, and West Ham should be expected to exploit Newcastle's holes.
However, at the other end, Newcastle should feel good about exploiting a West Ham defense that has been leaky as of late. Excluding their three games against relegation-bound Burnley, Norwich, and Watford from the sample size detailed above, West Ham have allowed 16 goals in nine games with an xG against of 14.3. Both of those defensive marks would put them firmly in the Bottom 5 in the table over the course of the season.
Newcastle have been bold going forward under Howe and have been seeing talisman Allan Saint-Maximin's best performances of the year recently. They've managed to break down tougher backlines than West Ham's, so we can count on them to do their part in hitting the Over here.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-130)
Best bet
West Ham and Newcastle are close at the moment, so much so that any result on Saturday wouldn't be of a huge surprise. We're avoiding a result as our best bet because of that. Keeping with the logic of a draw and goals, a 2-2 result was considered — but leaves little room for error. So, we'll stick with a total here but go Over on an alternate total of 3.5 at plus-money.
West Ham have topped three goals in six of their previous 12 matches, while two others have finished with 2-0 scorelines. Newcastle, meanwhile, have gone Over three goals in five of 12, with one 2-0 mixed in. Both teams' games have seen plenty of goals recently and they meet their match here against one another.
It's a tricky match to pick but one that should be entertaining for neutrals. Goals will be at the heart of that entertainment, so count on the Over on a total of 3.5 scored.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+185)
