Over the last week, England has been battered by several storms with the country's typically gloomy months worsened by extreme weather. These storm conditions are expected to continue into March, when the first signs of spring will bring an end to the unsettled conditions.
A storm has been simmering around Leicester City well before either of this week's storms reached England's shores and unlike the turn of the calendar, there's little reason to believe calmer times are ahead for Sunday's EPL betting underdogs, the Foxes.
Injuries and a shambolic defensive record have blown Leicester down the table, and our soccer picks and predictions are anticipating more turbulent times ahead as they visit Wolverhampton on Sunday to face a Wolves team in great form.
Wolves vs Leicester City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Wolves vs Leicester City betting tips
Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wolves vs Leicester City game info
• Location: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, England
• Date: Sunday, February 20, 2022
• Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN
Wolves vs Leicester City betting preview
Weather
It will be stormy weather in Wolverhampton on Sunday and the rain and wind will persist through kickoff and during the match. Heavy rain, winds of 25 mph, and temperatures around 50 degrees Fahrenheit are forecast in the afternoon on Sunday.
Injuries
Wolves: No injuries to report.
Leicester City: James Maddison AM (Doubtful), Caglar Soyuncu CB (Doubtful), James Justin RB (Out), Jonny Evans CB (Out), Jamie Vardy ST (Out), Timothy Castagne RB (Out), Ryan Bertrand LB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out).
Wolves vs Leicester City predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Though only a few places in the table separate Wolves and Leicester City, the 10-point gap is a more accurate representation of these two. Wolves have been a consistent mid-table side this season and have recently improved to where a push for a Europa League place isn't out of the question. Leicester City, meanwhile, have been teetering on the brink for several weeks now, with crisis held off after an impressive draw vs. West Ham last weekend.
For Wolves, it all starts at the back. One of the most compact and well-organized defenses in the Prem since they were promoted several years ago, that has carried on even in the transition from Nuno to new manager Bruno Lage. Wolverhampton have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league at just 17. While their expected goals against suggests some luck is involved (eighth at 30.5 xGA), the discrepancy isn't due to luck but rather one of the league's best goalkeepers.
Jose Sa has been a revelation in his first season in England, quickly establishing himself as arguably the signing of the season. The Portuguese keeper ranks in the 99th percentile in save percentage among GKs in Europe while registering in the 90th percentile in expected goals minus goals against, which is essentially a measure of shot-stopping ability. Sa's xG-GA of +7.4 is second in the league this year and double that of Liverpool's Alisson, who's widely seen as the league's best shot-stopper.
That excellent defensive record has helped to float an often toothless attack (though they've been scoring more frequently lately), and it will be the difference against a Leicester team whose only hope, more often than not, is to outscore their opponents. That's because for as good as Wolves' defensive record has been, Leicester's has been that bad.
Leicester have allowed the fifth-most goals in the league this year, while they have conceded the fourth-most xG and have played fewer games than the teams with worse defensive records. Among regular starters, Leicester keeper Kasper Schmeichel has the fourth-worst xG-GA, as the typically steady presence is in the middle of a horrible season.
Such is the caginess of Wolverhampton's games that one goal will likely be the difference here, with the stormy conditions only compounding the pace of this one. In such a tight match, one team has earned our trust wire-to-wire this Premier League season, and that's Wolves.
Prediction: Wolves (+115)
Over/Under analysis
As Wolves got off to a fairly average start under new manager Lage, supporters were left wondering what happened to the idea of evolution, with the club appearing to pursue a more attack-minded manager after former manager Nuno departed. Wolves went the first three games without scoring and in total, were held without a goal in 10 of their first 18 league games this year. While their defensive record remained strong, there were far too many draws or 1-0 defeats as the attack remained dry.
A recent spell of wins, however, has been buoyed by sudden potency in front of goal, with Wolverhampton scoring eight goals in their last five matches. With the exception of a 3-1 win over Southampton, though, some luck was involved with Wolves averaging just over 0.7 xG in the other three wins. There's still too little to believe Wolves' attack has finally been unlocked, though they are likely to score against such a poor Leicester defense.
A goal may be enough against a Foxes team still without Jamie Vardy, who leads them in league goals with nine despite missing almost the last two months. Worse still for Leicester is that James Maddison, their creative force going forward, had to be substituted on Thursday with an injury.
Leicester's injury list means they'll have to visit the league's second-best defense by goals conceded (17) without their two leading scorers, with Maddison also second in assists and first in both shot- and goal-creating actions. While Patson Daka has been a good addition for Leicester this season, he is not nearly enough to breakdown such a solid defense on his own.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-130)
Best bet
As always, it's hard to turn down a rightful favorite at plus-money in our EPL best bet, and that's the case here. Since the start of this season, Wolves have been superior to Leicester City and that has become even more apparent recently.
Since the calendar turned to January, Wolves have won four of five matches in the Prem, with a 1-0 loss to Arsenal quickly followed by an impressive 2-0 win over Spurs. Leicester, meanwhile, have taken two points from four league games in 2022, with their two losses (to Spurs and Liverpool) embarrassing for different reasons.
The home side has a vastly superior defensive record and has been finding goals as of late — something that should continue against a mediocre-at-best Foxes backline. Wolverhampton are at a good price here and backing them to win is our best bet.
Pick: Wolves (+115)
