Brazil vs Spain Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women's Soccer

Spain are on a mission to add a gold medal to their Nations League and World Cup triumphs, and they enter today's semifinal against Brazil as clear favorites to advance.

These teams met in the group stage, with the Spaniards grabbing a 2-0 win, but the Brazilians will look for payback here, even with legendary striker Marta set to miss out. 

My Brazil vs Spain predictions break down this classic showdown.

Brazil vs Spain prediction and best bet

Seeing red

Match prediction
Spain to win to nil (+137)

My analysis

If the last 12 months have confirmed anything, it’s that Spain are on top of the soccer mountain once again — and I’m picking La Roja to edge this semifinal.

While the Spaniards had to dig deep in their quarterfinal against Colombia, recovering from a 2-0 hole to equalize in the 97th minute and advance on penalties, that could serve as a wake-up call for this star-studded roster.

Spain’s group stage victory over Brazil may not offer too many clues for the semifinal script, given that Marta was sent off just before half-time and La Roja only went ahead once they had a player advantage, with goals from Athenea del Castillo and Alexia Putellas.

But it’s so tough to pick against Montse Tomé’s team, with Aitana Bonmati pulling the strings in midfield and a talented group of forwards to call on.

The Brazilians can take confidence from edging past France on Saturday with Gabi Portilho, a substitute in the prior two contests, popping up with the winner. It was the type of disciplined outing they will need to replicate today, though the outcome might have looked rather different if the French had converted a first-half penalty.

Marta missed that victory after being handed a two-game ban, and she will have a spectator role here too unless the Brazilians are successful with their appeal. Regardless, their sluggish group stage performances were alarming, scraping into the knockout rounds despite losing two of their three group contests.

With so much big-game experience, I’m banking on the Spaniards showing their class as the medal race intensifies, and that calls for a slicker display that Brazil will struggle to match.

Caldentey comes to play

My best bet
Mariona Caldentey anytime scorer (+210)

My analysis

It’s tough to gauge what type of game this will be, with neither team at their sharpest so far at the Olympics, so I’m looking to the player props market for my best bet rather than chancing my arm on total goals or the moneyline.

As you might expect for a contest with so many elite attackers, the anytime goalscorer market is jam-packed with enticing odds. I’m sticking with Spain and choosing Mariona Caldentey, who doesn’t get the same spotlight as Bonmati or Putellas but continues to be a key contributor to the Spaniards’ global dominance.

Like Bonmati, she logged the full 120 minutes against Colombia but I still see Tomé leaning heavily on Caldentey’s ability to impact the game from the left wing. With a license to roam infield, she’s an expert at finding space in the box, tallying at least three shots in three of her four games at this tournament.

Caldentey, who swapped Barcelona for Arsenal this summer, scored the winner in Spain’s opening group stage fixture and I like this price for her to find the net again. 

She’s certainly not afraid of the big moments, getting on the scoresheet in the Nations League final in February and putting away a clutch penalty in the World Cup quarterfinal last summer.

Caldentey will be a candidate for penalty-taking duties here, too, and she made no mistake with her spot-kick in the quarterfinal shootout.

Looking at this Spanish roster, you could make a strong case for various anytime scorer props — from Putellas to del Castillo to Salma Paralluelo — but I’m wagering on Caldentey to be one of La Roja’s match-winners.

Brazil vs Spain odds

• Moneyline: Brazil +450 | Spain -167
• Draw: +290
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

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