Germany vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women's Soccer

The United States and Germany meet for the second time in 10 days, and their Olympic semi-final match sees both aiming for a shot at the gold.

The USA outlasted Japan 1-0 thanks to an extra-time goal from Trinity Rodman, as their attack was stifled for the first time in the competition. Germany defeated Canada on penalties after a scoreless draw, and they’re seeking revenge following their 4-1 group-stage defeat.

I break down the best angles for betting on this match in my USA vs Germany predictions for Tuesday, August 6.

Germany vs. USA prediction and best bet

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Match prediction
USA moneyline (+105)

My analysis

The attacking line of Sophia Smith, Mallory Swanson, and Trinity Rodman tore up the group stage and combined to score three of the USA’s four goals in their group-stage win. However, one of Smith’s two goals came from a fortunate deflection, while Swanson’s came via a tap-in following a saved shot.

Germany tried to play in the open field with the United States, and the Americans' pace made them pay. That won’t happen again. The Germans played much more organized at the back against Canada and only allowed five of their opponent’s 22 shots to test their goalkeeper.

The Germans held more possession and didn’t bunker per se, but they did have a more compact back line and midfield and took fewer risks. With the spot in the final at stake, I expect more of the same.

The Americans are tired and won’t have the same forward thrust from the first match. But they still have dangerous players who can strike at any moment, and they will find more space to operate than they did against Japan.

Semi-finals tend to be very cagey affairs, often won by a moment of brilliance from a star player. The Americans have more such stars and have looked better throughout the tournament. They’ll find a way to get the win within regulation and reach the gold medal match. 

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My best bet
Both teams to score — No (-110)

My analysis

I was originally going to give out Under 2.5 as my best bet, but Monday saw the line move from around -120 at most places to well past -160. As such, we have to pivot a bit — but we’re still betting on a low-scoring affair in a way.

Germany played a very open style in the first meeting, which led to them conceding four goals. But they were committed to pushing numbers forward to create chances.

Oddly enough, their goal came not from one of those close-range opportunities, but rather from a low-driven shot from well outside the box that caught USA goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher off guard and snuck just past her inside the far post. 

Germany have played two quality teams in this competition, and that shot from distance is the only time they’ve breached the net in 210 minutes of action against the USA and Canada. But the match with the Americans is also the only time they’ve been caught out defensively, allowing just one goal across the other three fixtures.

As previously discussed, they’re going to play much more compactly here as they did against Canada. Fatigue is a real problem for both teams, and the USA’s match against Japan saw all their starters go the full 90 minutes. The attacking trio of Rodman, Smith, and Swanson looked gassed by the time it was over, and their legs simply lacked the same burst we’ve seen in earlier matches.

I see this match playing out similarly to both of the quarter-finals for these sides. Germany managed just one shot on goal from 14 efforts in 120 minutes, and Canada had just five of their 22 shots find the target. The USA’s match with Japan saw only four combined shots put on goal from the two sides.

This will be another tense, defensive affair. With the energy levels down, I anticipate only one team — if either of them — will score in regulation

Germany vs USA odds

• Moneyline: Germany +275 | USA +100
• Draw: +240
• Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

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