Boston @ Toronto preview

Rogers Centre

Last Meeting ( Apr 5, 2013 ) Boston 6, Toronto 4

The Boston Red Sox knew manager John Farrell’s first game back in Toronto would be rough, so they gave him something to smile about. The Red Sox will try to keep their manager happy when they continue the three-game series with the Blue Jays on Saturday. Toronto fans jeered the former Blue Jays manager after he called the Red Sox his “dream job” following his trade to Boston, but home runs by Mike Napoli and Will Middlebrooks helped Farrell beat the team he managed the past two seasons 6-4.

While the Blue Jays fell to 1-3, they had to be encouraged by the performance they received from Jose Reyes, who had four hits – including his first homer for Toronto – and fell a triple short of the cycle. Conversely, second baseman Emilio Bonifacio struck out four times and committed three fielding errors one night after making two sparkling defensive plays to preserve a victory against Cleveland.

TV: 1:07 p.m. ET, NESN (Boston), RSN (Toronto)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH John Lackey (NR) vs. Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (2012: 10-11, 4.79 ERA)

Lackey has struggled since leaving the Los Angeles Angels as a free agent for the Red Sox in 2010. The 34-year-old, who missed the 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, went 2-0 during the exhibition season, but gave up seven runs and 12 hits over 11 2/3 innings while allowing opposing hitters to bat. 273. Lackey has endured similar struggles in 19 career starts against the Blue Jays, going 5-7 with a 5.48 ERA.

Happ, acquired in a July 2012 deal with the Houston Astros, locked up the job as the Blue Jays’ No. 5 starter after a solid spring (1-1, 1.90 ERA). It was a positive turn for the Spring Valley, Ill., native, who fractured his right foot Sept. 3. Happ, who won three of his last four decisions in 2012, has made three career appearances – including two starts – against the Red Sox, going 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA.

WALK-OFFS

1. Blue Jays RF Jose Bautista was held out of the lineup Friday with a sore right ankle. He is day-to-day.

2. Boston’s 3-1 start is its best since 2008.

3. Toronto INF Mark DeRosa’s home run Friday was his first since April 5, 2010.

PREDICTION: Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 4

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

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