Toronto @ Boston props

This year, Jarren Duran has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has had some very good luck given the .046 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Whit Merrifield will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Whit Merrifield's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 91.2-mph EV last season has decreased to 88.9-mph. Whit Merrifield's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 16.4% on the season to 10.5% over the last 14 days.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In the last 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%. Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal average has lowered to 84.2-mph in the last week. Compared to his seasonal figure of 2.9°, Masataka Yoshida has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.8°) over the last 14 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.333) provides evidence that Masataka Yoshida has been very fortunate this year with his .368 actual wOBA.

The #2 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Daulton Varsho's launch angle this season (19°) is a considerable increase over his 14.5° mark last year. Daulton Varsho's launch angle recently (23.8° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 19° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin Kiermaier in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The #2 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Kevin Kiermaier hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In notching a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Kevin Kiermaier has performed in the 77th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Alejandro Kirk will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against James Paxton in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. George Springer is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. George Springer will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In the last week's worth of games, Rafael Devers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 42.2% to 36.6%. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, going from 36.6% on the season to 25.7% in the past 14 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.347) implies that Rafael Devers has experienced some positive variance this year with his .362 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Connor Wong pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Connor Wong will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Alex Verdugo has been cold in recent games, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the past 14 days.

The #2 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alek Manoah in today's matchup. Triston Casas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today's game.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Danny Jansen will hold the platoon advantage against James Paxton today. Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Matt Chapman will hold the platoon advantage over James Paxton in today's game. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Adam Duvall is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Adam Duvall pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Adam Duvall will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Arroyo in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Christian Arroyo has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Christian Arroyo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .279 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Arroyo has suffered from bad luck given the .026 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

Fenway Park grades out as the #2 field in the league for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Yu Chang will hold that advantage in today's game. In terms of his batting average, Yu Chang has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .191 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .214.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Brandon Belt has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.