Boston @ Tampa Bay props

Tropicana Field grades out as the #26 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran in today's game. Compared to his seasonal mark of 9.3°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.9°) over the last 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive ability to be a .339, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .019 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .358 wOBA.

The #5 park in the game for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Yandy Diaz will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello. Over the last week, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.6% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Connor Wong's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 39.5% on the season to 57.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Grading out in the 95th percentile, Connor Wong has put up a .349 BABIP this year.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences in MLB.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 17.3% seasonal rate to 30.4% in the last 14 days. This season, Tyler O'Neill has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.3 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field fences in the majors. Jonathan Aranda will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.7°, Jonathan Aranda has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.6° angle in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Batters such as Taylor Walls with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Taylor Walls has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 86.6-mph mark. Taylor Walls's launch angle lately (23.9° over the last 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 19.5° seasonal figure. Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, compiling a .244 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .281 — a .037 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Zack Littell today. There has been a significant improvement in Masataka Yoshida's launch angle from last season's 3.9° to 10° this season. In the past 14 days, Masataka Yoshida has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 26.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 12°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Bats such as Brandon Lowe with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Junior Caminero has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.9% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last 7 days. Junior Caminero has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Christopher Morel's launch angle of late (39.3° over the last week) is significantly better than his 14.6° seasonal angle.

Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences in MLB. Trevor Story's launch angle this season (19°) is significantly better than his 15.2° angle last season. Over the last week, Trevor Story's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.6%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.283) may lead us to conclude that Trevor Story has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .256 actual wOBA.

Ben Rortvedt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. Ben Rortvedt has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's game. Ben Rortvedt's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (28.4° in the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 9.2° seasonal angle. Posting a .320 BABIP this year, Ben Rortvedt is positioned in the 80th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 20th-best hitter in baseball. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game. Over the last week, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.5-mph over the course of the season to 98.3-mph of late. Based on Statcast data, Rafael Devers is in the 79th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .271.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Zack Littell in today's game. Wilyer Abreu has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 94.1-mph over the past two weeks. Wilyer Abreu has compiled a .343 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile. In notching a .336 BABIP this year, Wilyer Abreu grades out in the 92nd percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand in today's game. Triston Casas has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 102.9-mph in the past week. Triston Casas has posted a .337 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 84th percentile. Triston Casas has notched a .316 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile.