Paul Goldschmidt might be 37 years old, but he isn't nearly as washed up as he looked at the start of the season.
Goldschmidt headlines my favorite MLB player props for today, while I'm also backing Angels outfielder Taylor Ward and fading Nationals hurler Patrick Corbin. Here are my best free MLB picks for Thursday, September 19.
MLB props for September 19
- Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
- Corbin Under 17.5 outs (+110 at bet365)
- Ward Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI (+105 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases
Through the end of June, Paul Goldschmidt was batting just .225 while slugging .361 in 80 games. However, the seven-time All-Star has picked things up since the start of July, ramping those numbers up to .268 and .476 over 65 contests.
Today, Goldschmidt and the St. Louis Cardinals host the Pittsburgh Pirates and right-hander Luis Ortiz. Ortiz has been inconsistent as a starter this year, and his expected ERA sits at 4.41.
In four career at-bats against Ortiz, Goldschmidt has gone 3-for-4 with a double. Expect Goldschmidt to have success against either Ortiz or a Pirates bullpen that ranks near the bottom of the majors in ERA (4.67) and WHIP (1.41).
Prop bet #2: Patrick Corbin Under 17.5 outs
Washington Nationals lefthander Patrick Corbin has a 5.45 ERA with an OBA of .297 in 30 starts this season. He's been even worse on the road, where he has an ugly 6.58 ERA with an OBA of .347, which is relevant because today, Corbin plays at Wrigley Field against the Cubs.
The Cubbies bat .239 against righties, but that bumps up to .257 against southpaws thanks to a lineup featuring six players who bat from the opposite side of the plate. Chicago has also been red-hot at the dish, posting an OPS of .804 while plating 6.52 runs per game over the last 30 days.
Don't expect Corbin to pitch deep into this one and take the Under 17.5 on his outs. This is a five-star prop play according to THE BAT X, which is projecting just 14.7 outs for Corbin today.
Prop bet #3: Taylor Ward Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
The Los Angeles Angels have struggled at the plate, but that hasn't been Taylor Ward's fault. The outfielder is slashing .248/.324/.435 and leads the club with 71 runs while ranking second with 70 RBIs.
Ward hits better on the road, where he slugs .460, and he also performs significantly better with the platoon advantage, slugging .486 versus lefties. He'll have both of those factors in his favor today, with the Halos at Minute Maid Park against Astros southpaw Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has a 4.29 ERA in 30 starts, and he sits in the bottom 15th percentile in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate. Ward has been red-hot this month, slashing .328/.435/.672 with 10 RBIs and 15 runs through 16 games. Bet on that success to continue tonight.
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