I am not a believer in Seth Lugo. I know the Royals have won a lot of baseball games with him on the mound this season, but the advanced numbers keep saying a regression is coming. Lugo’s xERA sits at 3.72, which ranks in the 61st percentile, while his opponent xBA of .245 is in the 43rd percentile. Current O’s batters are a combined 12-for-33 with seven extra base hits vs. Lugo. While pitchers generally have a shorter leash in the postseason, Lugo has been one of the biggest innings eaters for KC. With a shaky bullpen in tow, I expect K.C. to allow him to work, giving the O's the opportunities needed to tally those knocks to send Lugo Over his hits allowed total of 4.5.
Andrew CaleyPicked 1 hrs, 47 min ago.
PROP
First five innings u4 (-115)
Both starters have been solid throughout the 2024 regular season and have postseason pitching experience, so I’m not anticipating either offense putting together a big inning early. Of course, as noted, the Royals are also coming off a dreadful September. There’s definitely potential for the Baltimore bats to do damage, given the Orioles sport a fifth-ranked .324 wOBA against righties for the season. Still, Royals righty Seth Lugo also has a splash of statistical correction ahead of his .323 BABIP and 64.3% strand rate across his past 10 starts. His 4.15 ERA during the stretch is also above his 3.90 xFIP.
Neil ParkerPicked 6 hrs, 4 min ago.
PROP
Seth Lugo Under 4.5 hits allowed (-109)
The Kansas City Royals could get creative today as they look to eliminate the Baltimore Orioles, who have lost nine straight playoff games. Seth Lugo might have a full leash, but there are more outcomes where he doesn't, and some of those paths could still come with him pitching well. Lugo is paying -115 for Under 4.5 hits allowed. The Orioles managed just four hits vs. yesterday's starter Cole Ragans, who was dealing but was also pulled at just 80 pitches. If that's the leash manager Matt Quatraro is giving his ace, Lugo could be on a tighter output. Granted, Ragans was dealing with left calf cramps, but he expects to be ready for his next start. Lugo can get this Under 4.5 hits on 18 outs, though, if needed but 80 pitches might be the limit today as Quatraro could easily get creative again today. Lugo could get pulled with a quick hook if he gets hit early, for example.
Seth Lugo o4.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
