Miami @ Denver picks

The matchup against Denver is a challenging one; when the Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the 7th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs this year (14.0). The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games in their home stadium, which should decrease plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Caleb Martin will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsens stat production across the board.

The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to 3-point attempts. The matchup against the Heat is a tough one; they have given up the 12th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting Cs this year (11.9). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets. The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted a lowly 2.4 foul shots per game this year (14th-least in the NBA).

The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists). When playing away from home, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). Jeff Green will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home stadium tends to raises player performance across the board.

Aaron Gordon has converted 54.2% of his field goal attempts playing at home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Aaron Gordon has played 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.6 higher than he's played overall this year. The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists). When playing away from home, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the league).

Jimmy Butler has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.2 higher than he's averaged overall this season on the road. The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games in their home stadium, which should decrease plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Jimmy Butler will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court usually decreases stat production in all facets of the game.

Aaron Gordon has put up 2.9 assists per game this year, placing him in the 75th percentile -- among the league's hottest by this metric in recent days. Aaron Gordon has played 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.6 higher than he's played overall this year. The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists). When playing away from home, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). Aaron Gordon will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally improves player performance in all stat categories.

Jamal Murray has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's been called for in all games this year. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to 3-point attempts. The matchup against Miami is a difficult one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 12th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs this year (16.2). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

Nikola Jokic has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 84th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing at home. The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Nuggets.

Bam Adebayo has been called for 2.9 personal fouls per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled. The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games in their home stadium, which should decrease plays for the Heat. The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally decreases player performance for all stats.

Jeff Green has made 50.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 23.0% higher than he's converted from three overall this year. The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists). When playing away from home, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). Jeff Green has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 27.4% more than he's made over the course of the season. The matchup against the Heat may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 free throws per game over the last 15 games (29th-most in the league).