Final Oct 4
BOS 107 -1.0 o217.5
DEN 103 1.0 u217.5
Final Oct 4
MIN 124 -4.5 o215.5
LAL 107 4.5 u215.5
Philadelphia 7th EASTERN CONFERENCE47-35
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
ESPN, Sportsnet

Philadelphia @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Tyrese Maxey Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

T. Maxey
point guard PG • Philadelphia
Prop
31.5
Points Scored
Projection
26.5
Best Odds
Under
-115

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense). Tyrese Maxey will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage tends to reduce player performance in all stat categories.

Tyrese Maxey

Prop: 31.5 Points Scored
Projection: 26.5
Prop:
31.5 Points Scored
Projection:
26.5

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense). Tyrese Maxey will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage tends to reduce player performance in all stat categories.

Joel Embiid Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

J. Embiid
center C • Philadelphia
Prop
32.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.2
Best Odds
Under
+105

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense). The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs vs. Bam Adebayo has been quite low this year (2.6 free throw attempts per game: 23rd percentile). Joel Embiid will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to lower player production for all stats.

Joel Embiid

Prop: 32.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.2
Prop:
32.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.2

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense). The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs vs. Bam Adebayo has been quite low this year (2.6 free throw attempts per game: 23rd percentile). Joel Embiid will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to lower player production for all stats.

Caleb Martin Points Scored Props • Miami

C. Martin
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
12
Best Odds
Over
-101

Caleb Martin has made 56.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 20.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season. Caleb Martin has played 33.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 4.6 more than he's played in all games this season at home. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers is a strong one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 27th-highest three rate in the league this year (40.8%). The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).

Caleb Martin

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12

Caleb Martin has made 56.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 20.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season. Caleb Martin has played 33.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 4.6 more than he's played in all games this season at home. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers is a strong one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 27th-highest three rate in the league this year (40.8%). The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).

Kyle Lowry Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Lowry
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
-118

Kyle Lowry has sunk 57.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 16.1% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while at home. Kyle Lowry has made 55.6% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 12.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup vs. Philadelphia is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the 76ers are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 24th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (39.9%). The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).

Kyle Lowry

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.7
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.7

Kyle Lowry has sunk 57.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 16.1% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while at home. Kyle Lowry has made 55.6% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 12.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup vs. Philadelphia is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the 76ers are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 24th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (39.9%). The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).

Kelly Oubre Jr. Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

K. Oubre Jr.
small forward SF • Philadelphia
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.4
Best Odds
Under
-120

Relative to last year's 32.3 mark, Kelly Oubre Jr.'s playing time has decreased this year to 25.5 minutes per game. Out of all players in the NBA, Kelly Oubre Jr. slots into the 78th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game this year. In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense).

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.4
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.4

Relative to last year's 32.3 mark, Kelly Oubre Jr.'s playing time has decreased this year to 25.5 minutes per game. Out of all players in the NBA, Kelly Oubre Jr. slots into the 78th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game this year. In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense).

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.5
Best Odds
Under
+100
Prop
15.5 Points Scored
Projection
14.5
Best Odds
Under
+100
Projection Rating

This year, the other team's starting SFs have registered 11.3 points per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, designating this as a challenging matchup for offensive efficiency. The 2nd-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. This year, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.5 foul shots per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the 76ers, making it tough to draw fouls.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.5
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.5

This year, the other team's starting SFs have registered 11.3 points per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, designating this as a challenging matchup for offensive efficiency. The 2nd-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. This year, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.5 foul shots per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the 76ers, making it tough to draw fouls.

Tobias Harris Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

T. Harris
small forward SF • Philadelphia
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.9
Best Odds
Under
+105

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense). The matchup vs. the Miami Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (12th-least in the league). Tobias Harris figures to experience a decrease in output in all stat categories in light of playing away from home in this game.

Tobias Harris

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.9
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.9

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat). Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have snagged 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (retaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense). The matchup vs. the Miami Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (12th-least in the league). Tobias Harris figures to experience a decrease in output in all stat categories in light of playing away from home in this game.

Paul Reed Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

P. Reed
power forward PF • Philadelphia
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.4
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.4
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a strong one for scoring; when squaring off against other starting Cs this year, they have converted a whopping 68.5% of their field goal attempts (100th percentile). The 8th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the 76ers. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers grade out 9thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Paul Reed has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 22.2% more than he's made over the course of the year.

Paul Reed

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.4
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.4

The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a strong one for scoring; when squaring off against other starting Cs this year, they have converted a whopping 68.5% of their field goal attempts (100th percentile). The 8th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the 76ers. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers grade out 9thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Paul Reed has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 22.2% more than he's made over the course of the year.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.4
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.4
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Duncan Robinson has successfully made a terrific 5.3 buckets per game this season, a significant increase from his 2.5 rate last season. Duncan Robinson has converted 4.0 treys per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year at home. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers). On the road, the Philadelphia 76ers have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (7.8) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.4
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.4

Duncan Robinson has successfully made a terrific 5.3 buckets per game this season, a significant increase from his 2.5 rate last season. Duncan Robinson has converted 4.0 treys per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year at home. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers). On the road, the Philadelphia 76ers have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (7.8) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.5
Best Odds
Over
-118

Tyler Herro has successfully made 9.0 field goals per game this year, putting him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Tyler Herro has sunk a whopping 43.8% of his three-point shots this season, a big improvement over his 35.0 mark last season. Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro lands in the 90th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 34.1 minutes per game this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup vs. Philadelphia is a favorable one for three-point shots; when the Philadelphia 76ers are on the road, opposing starting SGs have posted the 27th-highest three percentage in the league this year (46.2%).

Tyler Herro

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.5
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.5

Tyler Herro has successfully made 9.0 field goals per game this year, putting him in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Tyler Herro has sunk a whopping 43.8% of his three-point shots this season, a big improvement over his 35.0 mark last season. Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro lands in the 90th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 34.1 minutes per game this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The matchup vs. Philadelphia is a favorable one for three-point shots; when the Philadelphia 76ers are on the road, opposing starting SGs have posted the 27th-highest three percentage in the league this year (46.2%).

Kevin Love Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Love
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.3
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.3
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The 2nd-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. This year when they are playing at home, their opposition has attempted 24.3 free throws per game (9th-highest in the league) against the Philadelphia 76ers, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Kevin Love

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.3
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.3

The 2nd-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 9.6 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. This year when they are playing at home, their opposition has attempted 24.3 free throws per game (9th-highest in the league) against the Philadelphia 76ers, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.2
Best Odds
Over
-115

Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo places in the 90th percentile for shots from the field sunk while on his home court, compiling a whopping 7.9 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo places in the 94th percentile for 3-point effectiveness when playing at home with a a terrific 50.0% rate this year. Bam Adebayo has played 32.8 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The rate of shots scored against Paul Reed has been quite high (64.8%) when he is away from his home court and facing fellow starting Cs this year (90th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.2
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.2

Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo places in the 90th percentile for shots from the field sunk while on his home court, compiling a whopping 7.9 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo places in the 94th percentile for 3-point effectiveness when playing at home with a a terrific 50.0% rate this year. Bam Adebayo has played 32.8 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The rate of shots scored against Paul Reed has been quite high (64.8%) when he is away from his home court and facing fellow starting Cs this year (90th percentile).

De'Anthony Melton Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

D. Melton
point guard PG • Philadelphia
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-104
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds
Over
-104
Projection Rating

De'Anthony Melton has attempted 5.5 3-pointers per game this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for three-point attempts; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 8th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the 76ers. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers grade out 9thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. De'Anthony Melton has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 25.4% more than he's put through the net in all games this season.

De'Anthony Melton

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.8
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.8

De'Anthony Melton has attempted 5.5 3-pointers per game this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league. The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for three-point attempts; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 8th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the 76ers. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers grade out 9thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. De'Anthony Melton has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 25.4% more than he's put through the net in all games this season.

Robert Covington Points Scored Props • Philadelphia

R. Covington
small forward SF • Philadelphia
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
5.5
Best Odds
Over
+110
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
5.5
Best Odds
Over
+110
Projection Rating

Robert Covington has made 50.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 9.2% higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the season away from home. The 8th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the 76ers. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers grade out 9thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Robert Covington has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's converted overall this year. The matchup against the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing teams have attempted a lowly 20.7 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the NBA).

Robert Covington

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 5.5
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
5.5

Robert Covington has made 50.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 9.2% higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the season away from home. The 8th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the 76ers. Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers grade out 9thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games. Robert Covington has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's converted overall this year. The matchup against the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing teams have attempted a lowly 20.7 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the NBA).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.5
Best Odds
Over
-125

Jimmy Butler has compiled 21.5 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 90th percentile. Among all players in the league, Jimmy Butler measures in the 90th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 34.0 minutes per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Jimmy Butler comes in at the 18th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a mere 1.1 fouls per game this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.5
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.5

Jimmy Butler has compiled 21.5 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 90th percentile. Among all players in the league, Jimmy Butler measures in the 90th percentile for playing time, logging a whopping 34.0 minutes per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Jimmy Butler comes in at the 18th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a mere 1.1 fouls per game this year. The Heat have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year. The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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