Final Oct 4
BOS 107 -1.0 o217.5
DEN 103 1.0 u217.5
Final Oct 4
MIN 124 -4.5 o215.5
LAL 107 4.5 u215.5
Dallas 5th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32
Golden State 10th WESTERN CONFERENCE46-36
NBCS - BA, BSN, NBALP

Dallas @ Golden State props

Chase Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Grant Williams Points Scored Props • Dallas

G. Williams
power forward PF • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Over
-138
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
8
Best Odds
Over
-138
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Grant Williams registers in the 79th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, tallying 5.1 per game this year. This matchup is a tough one for threes; opposing clubs have posted the 3rd-lowest 3-point rate in the league over the last 10 games playing at home (33.4%). The quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 8thbest in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Grant Williams

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8

Out of all players in the league, Grant Williams registers in the 79th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, tallying 5.1 per game this year. This matchup is a tough one for threes; opposing clubs have posted the 3rd-lowest 3-point rate in the league over the last 10 games playing at home (33.4%). The quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 8thbest in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Luka Doncic Points Scored Props • Dallas

L. Doncic
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
37.5
Points Scored
Projection
34.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
37.5 Points Scored
Projection
34.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The Mavericks rank as the 4th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court. The Warriors have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks. While at home, the Warriors have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (11.6) in the league to the other team over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists). Compared to last season's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of foul shot attempts has regressed this season to 8.5 foul shot attempts per game. Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player performance in all facets of the game.

Luka Doncic

Prop: 37.5 Points Scored
Projection: 34.1
Prop:
37.5 Points Scored
Projection:
34.1

The Mavericks rank as the 4th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court. The Warriors have played at the 6th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which should decrease opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks. While at home, the Warriors have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (11.6) in the league to the other team over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists). Compared to last season's 10.5 mark, Luka Doncic's number of foul shot attempts has regressed this season to 8.5 foul shot attempts per game. Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player performance in all facets of the game.

Dante Exum Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Exum
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.9
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.9
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Dante Exum has made 52.4% of his field goals away from home this year, placing him in the 79th percentile out of all players in the league. Dante Exum has converted 60.3% of his 3-pointers over the last 10 games, 19.4% higher than he's converted in all games this year. Dante Exum has been on the court for 32.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 13.1 more than he's been on the court for overall this season. This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 47.0% on threes (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors, labeling this as a strong matchup. The quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.

Dante Exum

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.9
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.9

Dante Exum has made 52.4% of his field goals away from home this year, placing him in the 79th percentile out of all players in the league. Dante Exum has converted 60.3% of his 3-pointers over the last 10 games, 19.4% higher than he's converted in all games this year. Dante Exum has been on the court for 32.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 13.1 more than he's been on the court for overall this season. This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 47.0% on threes (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors, labeling this as a strong matchup. The quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.

Klay Thompson Points Scored Props • Golden State

K. Thompson
shooting guard SG • Golden State
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.6
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.6
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Klay Thompson has converted 4.3 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's made over the course of the season. The Mavericks have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Golden State Warriors. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year. Klay Thompson has converted 96.4% of his foul shots while at home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Klay Thompson will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally improves player production in all facets of the game.

Klay Thompson

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.6
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.6

Klay Thompson has converted 4.3 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's made over the course of the season. The Mavericks have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Golden State Warriors. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year. Klay Thompson has converted 96.4% of his foul shots while at home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Klay Thompson will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally improves player production in all facets of the game.

Chris Paul Points Scored Props • Golden State

C. Paul
point guard PG • Golden State
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a positive one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 26th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.1). The rate of field goals drained against Jaden Hardy has been remarkably high (48.6%) when he is away from his home court and defending opposing starting SGs this year (79th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Golden State Warriors. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year. Chris Paul will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to increase player performance across the board.

Chris Paul

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.2
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.2

The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a positive one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 26th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.1). The rate of field goals drained against Jaden Hardy has been remarkably high (48.6%) when he is away from his home court and defending opposing starting SGs this year (79th percentile). The Mavericks have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Golden State Warriors. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year. Chris Paul will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to increase player performance across the board.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Points Scored Props • Dallas

T. Hardaway Jr.
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.3
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.3
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Tim Hardaway Jr. has attempted 14.9 field goals per game this year, placing him in the 86th percentile among all players in the league. Tim Hardaway Jr. has attempted 9.2 threes per game this season, significantly higher than his 7.8 rate last season. This matchup is a tough one for threes; opposing clubs have posted the 3rd-lowest 3-point rate in the league over the last 10 games playing at home (33.4%). The quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 8thbest in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.3
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.3

Tim Hardaway Jr. has attempted 14.9 field goals per game this year, placing him in the 86th percentile among all players in the league. Tim Hardaway Jr. has attempted 9.2 threes per game this season, significantly higher than his 7.8 rate last season. This matchup is a tough one for threes; opposing clubs have posted the 3rd-lowest 3-point rate in the league over the last 10 games playing at home (33.4%). The quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Dallas Mavericks rank 8thbest in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Stephen Curry Points Scored Props • Golden State

S. Curry
point guard PG • Golden State
Prop
27.5
Points Scored
Projection
27.9
Best Odds
Over
-125

Among all players in the NBA, Stephen Curry slots into the 100th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, averaging 11.5 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Stephen Curry comes in at the 86th percentile for playing time, averaging a colossal 33.4 minutes per game this year. This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting PGs have averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game (22nd-highest in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, marking this as a strong matchup. The Mavericks have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Golden State Warriors. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Stephen Curry

Prop: 27.5 Points Scored
Projection: 27.9
Prop:
27.5 Points Scored
Projection:
27.9

Among all players in the NBA, Stephen Curry slots into the 100th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, averaging 11.5 per game this year. Among all players in the NBA, Stephen Curry comes in at the 86th percentile for playing time, averaging a colossal 33.4 minutes per game this year. This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting PGs have averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game (22nd-highest in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, marking this as a strong matchup. The Mavericks have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Golden State Warriors. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

Pages Related to This Topic