Final Mar 11
WAS 103 15.0 o234.5
DET 123 -15.0 u234.5
Final Mar 11
BK 104 15.0 o223.5
CLE 109 -15.0 u223.5
Final Mar 11
MIL 114 1.5 o237.5
IND 115 -1.5 u237.5
Final Mar 11
LAC 120 -7.5 o222.5
NO 127 7.5 u222.5
Miami 9th EASTERN CONFERENCE29-35
Orlando 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE30-36

Miami @ Orlando props

Kia Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Moritz Wagner Points Scored Props • Orlando

M. Wagner
center C • Orlando
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Under
-130
Prop
16.5 Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Under
-130
Projection Rating

In terms of scoring, the Magic's poor 101.6 points per game rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Magic.

Moritz Wagner

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14

In terms of scoring, the Magic's poor 101.6 points per game rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Magic.

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.3
Best Odds
Under
-120
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.3
Best Odds
Under
-120
Projection Rating

The 4th-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Heat are expected to see a decline in plays in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Orlando Magic). Offensive rebounds save possession and result in added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 8thworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.7 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. Nikola Jovic will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces stat production in all facets of the game.

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.3
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.3

The 4th-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Heat are expected to see a decline in plays in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Orlando Magic). Offensive rebounds save possession and result in added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 8thworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.7 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. Nikola Jovic will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage usually reduces stat production in all facets of the game.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-121
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-121
Projection Rating

Duncan Robinson has totaled 15.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.0 more than he's totaled over the course of the year. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 1.9 three-pointers per game (8th-most in the league) against the Orlando Magic, identifying this as a good matchup. Duncan Robinson has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.2
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.2

Duncan Robinson has totaled 15.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.0 more than he's totaled over the course of the year. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 1.9 three-pointers per game (8th-most in the league) against the Orlando Magic, identifying this as a good matchup. Duncan Robinson has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.

Tristan da Silva Points Scored Props • Orlando

T. da Silva
small forward SF • Orlando
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.4
Best Odds
Under
-114
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.4
Best Odds
Under
-114
Projection Rating

Tristan da Silva has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's tallied overall this year. In terms of scoring, the Magic's poor 101.6 points per game rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Magic.

Tristan da Silva

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.4
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.4

Tristan da Silva has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's tallied overall this year. In terms of scoring, the Magic's poor 101.6 points per game rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Magic.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.3
Best Odds
Over
-104
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.3
Best Odds
Over
-104
Projection Rating

Haywood Highsmith has converted 50.9% of his shot attempts from the field on the road this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile among all players in the NBA. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 49.9% on shot attempts from the field (10th-best in the NBA) vs. the Orlando Magic, labeling this as a strong matchup. The matchup against Orlando is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.4 foul shots per game this year when the Orlando Magic are playing at home (5th-most in the NBA).

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.3
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.3

Haywood Highsmith has converted 50.9% of his shot attempts from the field on the road this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile among all players in the NBA. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 49.9% on shot attempts from the field (10th-best in the NBA) vs. the Orlando Magic, labeling this as a strong matchup. The matchup against Orlando is a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.4 foul shots per game this year when the Orlando Magic are playing at home (5th-most in the NBA).

Anthony Black Points Scored Props • Orlando

A. Black
point guard PG • Orlando
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.5
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.8 foul shots per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, finding it easy to get to the foul line. Anthony Black will likely see an increase in performance across the board due to owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Anthony Black

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.5
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.5

The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.8 foul shots per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, finding it easy to get to the foul line. Anthony Black will likely see an increase in performance across the board due to owning the home court advantage in this contest.

Jalen Suggs Points Scored Props • Orlando

J. Suggs
shooting guard SG • Orlando
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.4
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
20.5 Points Scored
Projection
19.4
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

In terms of scoring, the Magic's poor 101.6 points per game rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Magic.

Jalen Suggs

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.4
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.4

In terms of scoring, the Magic's poor 101.6 points per game rates fewest in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Magic.

Wendell Carter Jr. Points Scored Props • Orlando

W. Carter Jr.
center C • Orlando
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.3
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three rate in the league this year (43.4%). The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Wendell Carter Jr. has converted 3.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's converted over the course of the season. Wendell Carter Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally raises player performance across the board.

Wendell Carter Jr.

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.3
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.3

The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three rate in the league this year (43.4%). The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Wendell Carter Jr. has converted 3.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's converted over the course of the season. Wendell Carter Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally raises player performance across the board.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11
Best Odds
Over
-102

With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 1.9 three-pointers per game (8th-most in the league) against the Orlando Magic, identifying this as a good matchup. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has attempted 4.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 1.5 more than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11

With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. This year, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 1.9 three-pointers per game (8th-most in the league) against the Orlando Magic, identifying this as a good matchup. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has attempted 4.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 1.5 more than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.2
Best Odds
Over
-113
Prop
16.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.2
Best Odds
Over
-113
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has attempted 13.8 field goals per game this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has tallied 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 94th percentile. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. Bam Adebayo has made 96.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 17.2% more than he's made in all games this year on the road. The matchup vs. Goga Bitadze is a positive one for drawing fouls; when matched up against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 3.5 foul shots per game (75th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.2
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.2

Bam Adebayo has attempted 13.8 field goals per game this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Bam Adebayo has tallied 35.2 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 94th percentile. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. Bam Adebayo has made 96.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 17.2% more than he's made in all games this year on the road. The matchup vs. Goga Bitadze is a positive one for drawing fouls; when matched up against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 3.5 foul shots per game (75th percentile).

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
22.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.2
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
22.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.2
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

Tyler Herro has posted 24.3 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league by this metric: 95th percentile. Tyler Herro has sunk a terrific 4.1 3-pointers per game this season, quite a bit more than his 3.2 rate last season. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 35.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 93rd percentile. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. Orlando is a strong one for threes; when the Magic are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have shot for the 6th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (42.3%).

Tyler Herro

Prop: 22.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.2
Prop:
22.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.2

Tyler Herro has posted 24.3 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league by this metric: 95th percentile. Tyler Herro has sunk a terrific 4.1 3-pointers per game this season, quite a bit more than his 3.2 rate last season. Tyler Herro has been on the court for 35.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 93rd percentile. With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's remarkable 37.1% rate of drained threes away from home comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year. The matchup vs. Orlando is a strong one for threes; when the Magic are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have shot for the 6th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (42.3%).

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Points Scored Props • Orlando

K. Caldwell-Pope
shooting guard SG • Orlando
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11
Best Odds
Over
-125

Out of all players in the league, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope comes in at the 76th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 30.4 minutes per game this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, labeling this as a good matchup. The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage usually boosts stat production in all facets of the game.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11

Out of all players in the league, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope comes in at the 76th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 30.4 minutes per game this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, labeling this as a good matchup. The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage usually boosts stat production in all facets of the game.

Goga Bitadze Points Scored Props • Orlando

G. Bitadze
center C • Orlando
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12
Best Odds
Over
-125

Goga Bitadze has converted 5.4 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. Goga Bitadze has averaged 29.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.7 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo ranks in the 100th percentile with the other side's starting Cs nailing an enormous 52.2% of their three-point shots this year. The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Goga Bitadze figures to get a boost in effectiveness across the board as a result of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Goga Bitadze

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12

Goga Bitadze has converted 5.4 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. Goga Bitadze has averaged 29.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.7 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo ranks in the 100th percentile with the other side's starting Cs nailing an enormous 52.2% of their three-point shots this year. The Magic rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists). Goga Bitadze figures to get a boost in effectiveness across the board as a result of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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