Miami @ Orlando picks

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has converted 22.2% of his shots from behind the three-point arc this year, ranking in the 12th percentile out of all players in the league. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's been called for over the course of the season. The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the league this year. The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Orlando Magic). The Miami Heat have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson measures in the 91st percentile for 3-point shots drained, putting up 2.6 per game this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 9th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have tallied 14.8 field goal attempts per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Orlando Magic, designating this as a good matchup. Duncan Robinson has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 14.8% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season. Over the last 10 games, opposing starting SGs have attempted 5.4 foul shots per game (highest in the NBA) against the Magic, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Wendell Carter Jr. has totaled 7.5 rebounds per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league by this metric: 92nd percentile. The Magic have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Wendell Carter Jr. ought to get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories due to holding the home court advantage in this contest.