Denver @ Miami props

The number of 3-pointers attempted against Nikola Jokic has been quite low (1.3 per game) when matched up against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Nikola Jokic has been remarkably low this year (2.5 foul shots per game when they are on their home court: 20th percentile).

The Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA at home this year, which should lead to decreased plays for the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic stands to suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all facets of the game due to playing on the visting team in this contest.

This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 4.5 three attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, labeling this as a difficult matchup. The 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

The Heat check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). Terry Rozier has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 12.7% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year. This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line. Terry Rozier will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to boost stat production in all facets of the game.

Haywood Highsmith has successfully made 2.0 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the season. The Heat check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The matchup vs. Denver is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Denver Nuggets are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have put up the 5th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (44.8%). The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). Haywood Highsmith will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium tends to increase player production for all stats.