Final Apr 1
PHI 91 13.0 o219.0
NY 105 -13.0 u219.0
Final Apr 1
POR 127 5.5 o235.0
ATL 113 -5.5 u235.0
Final Apr 1
PHO 123 7.0 o226.0
MIL 133 -7.0 u226.0
Final Apr 1
ORL 116 -5.0 o216.5
SA 105 5.0 u216.5
Final Apr 1
TOR 118 4.0 o238.0
CHI 137 -4.0 u238.0
Final Apr 1
GS 134 -3.5 o239.0
MEM 125 3.5 u239.0
Final 2OT Apr 1
MIN 140 2.0 o229.0
DEN 139 -2.0 u229.0
Denver 3rd WESTERN CONFERENCE47-29
Miami 9th EASTERN CONFERENCE34-41

Denver @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.2
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.2

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Russell Westbrook Points Scored Props • Denver

R. Westbrook
point guard PG • Denver
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
14
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Russell Westbrook has converted 58.2% of his field goals over the last 10 games on the road, 10.6% higher than he's made in all games this season on the road. Russell Westbrook has been on the court for 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games on the road, 4.9 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year on the road. The matchup against the Heat is a strong one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 4th-best in in the NBA while playing away from home with 13.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Russell Westbrook

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14

Russell Westbrook has converted 58.2% of his field goals over the last 10 games on the road, 10.6% higher than he's made in all games this season on the road. Russell Westbrook has been on the court for 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games on the road, 4.9 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year on the road. The matchup against the Heat is a strong one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 4th-best in in the NBA while playing away from home with 13.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Peyton Watson Points Scored Props • Denver

P. Watson
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.7
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 4th-best in in the NBA while playing away from home with 13.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games. Peyton Watson has made 91.7% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 13.1% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season while on the road.

Peyton Watson

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.7
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.7

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 4th-best in in the NBA while playing away from home with 13.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games. Peyton Watson has made 91.7% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 13.1% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season while on the road.

Nikola Jović Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jović
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.8
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.8
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets).

Nikola Jović

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.8
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.8

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets).

Michael Porter Jr. Points Scored Props • Denver

M. Porter Jr.
small forward SF • Denver
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.1
Best Odds
Over
-112
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
16.1
Best Odds
Over
-112
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. rates in the 89th percentile for shots from the field converted, putting up a colossal 7.0 per game this year. Michael Porter Jr. has made 2.2 three-pointers per game while on the road this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. registers in the 91st percentile for playing time, registering a monstrous 33.8 minutes per game this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for threes; when the Heat have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (46.4%). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.

Michael Porter Jr.

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.1
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.1

Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. rates in the 89th percentile for shots from the field converted, putting up a colossal 7.0 per game this year. Michael Porter Jr. has made 2.2 three-pointers per game while on the road this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. registers in the 91st percentile for playing time, registering a monstrous 33.8 minutes per game this year. The matchup against Miami is a good one for threes; when the Heat have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PFs have posted the highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (46.4%). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.

Haywood Highsmith Points Scored Props • Miami

H. Highsmith
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.5
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The matchup vs. Denver is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Denver Nuggets are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have put up the 5th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (44.8%). The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets).

Haywood Highsmith

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.5
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.5

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The matchup vs. Denver is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Denver Nuggets are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have put up the 5th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (44.8%). The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets).

Jamal Murray Points Scored Props • Denver

J. Murray
point guard PG • Denver
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
20
Best Odds
Over
-110

Jamal Murray has attempted 16.1 shots from the field per game this year, ranking in the 90th percentile among all players in the league. Jamal Murray has sunk 3.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's converted from three in all games this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray comes in at the 97th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 35.8 minutes per game this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, labeling this as a positive matchup. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.

Jamal Murray

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20

Jamal Murray has attempted 16.1 shots from the field per game this year, ranking in the 90th percentile among all players in the league. Jamal Murray has sunk 3.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's converted from three in all games this year. Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray comes in at the 97th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 35.8 minutes per game this year. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, labeling this as a positive matchup. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.7
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
15.5 Points Scored
Projection
14.7
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The number of 3-pointers attempted against Nikola Jokic has been quite low (1.3 per game) when matched up against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Nikola Jokic has been remarkably low this year (2.4 foul shots per game when they are on their home court: 20th percentile).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.7
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.7

The number of 3-pointers attempted against Nikola Jokic has been quite low (1.3 per game) when matched up against fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists). The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Nikola Jokic has been remarkably low this year (2.4 foul shots per game when they are on their home court: 20th percentile).

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Over
-109
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Over
-109
Projection Rating

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.2
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.2

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). This year, opposing starting SGs have attempted 3.7 free throws per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Christian Braun Points Scored Props • Denver

C. Braun
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Christian Braun has made 53.3% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games, 17.3% higher than he's sunk overall this year. Christian Braun has averaged 33.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 88th percentile. This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in a good matchup. The matchup vs. Jimmy Butler is a positive one for 3-point shots; when guarding other starting SFs this year, they have sunk a monstrous 44.8% of their three-point shots (100th percentile). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.

Christian Braun

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.2
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.2

Christian Braun has made 53.3% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games, 17.3% higher than he's sunk overall this year. Christian Braun has averaged 33.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 88th percentile. This year, opposing starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in a good matchup. The matchup vs. Jimmy Butler is a positive one for 3-point shots; when guarding other starting SFs this year, they have sunk a monstrous 44.8% of their three-point shots (100th percentile). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games as the visting team.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
14.5 Points Scored
Projection
15.1
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). The matchup vs. Denver is a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting SFs have attempted an enormous 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Nuggets are the visiting squad (10th-most in the league).

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.1
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.1

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). The matchup vs. Denver is a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting SFs have attempted an enormous 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Nuggets are the visiting squad (10th-most in the league).

Nikola Jokic Points Scored Props • Denver

N. Jokic
center C • Denver
Prop
27.5
Points Scored
Projection
27.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Prop
27.5 Points Scored
Projection
27.1
Best Odds
Under
-110
Projection Rating

The Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA at home this year, which should lead to decreased plays for the Denver Nuggets. The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Bam Adebayo has been very low this year (2.7 free throws per game: 23rd percentile). Nikola Jokic stands to suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all facets of the game due to playing on the visting team in this contest.

Nikola Jokic

Prop: 27.5 Points Scored
Projection: 27.1
Prop:
27.5 Points Scored
Projection:
27.1

The Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of shots from behind the three-point arc. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA at home this year, which should lead to decreased plays for the Denver Nuggets. The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Bam Adebayo has been very low this year (2.7 free throws per game: 23rd percentile). Nikola Jokic stands to suffer a drop-off in effectiveness in all facets of the game due to playing on the visting team in this contest.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Over
-108
Prop
23.5 Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Over
-108
Projection Rating

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.6 free throws per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.8
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.8

The Heat check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court. The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-quickest pace visiting offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Nuggets). Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.6 free throws per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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