Boston @ Miami picks

Duncan Robinson has sunk 3.8 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season while at home. Duncan Robinson has averaged 33.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 8.0 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 10.4% more than he's put through the net in all games this year. Duncan Robinson will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage tends to raise player production for all stats.

Davion Mitchell has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (92nd percentile). The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics). The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jaylen Brown has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 more than he's tallied overall this year on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Jaylen Brown will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens stat production for all stats.

Sam Hauser has successfully made 55.9% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games on the road, 12.0% higher than he's made from three over the course of the year while playing away from home. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a strong one for 3-point attempts; opposing starting SGs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Relative to last season's 90.9% rate, Sam Hauser's free-throw performance has risen this season to 100.0%. The matchup against Miami is a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a massive 3.4 free throws per game this year when the Heat are at home (9th-most in the league).