Boston @ Miami props

Jaylen Brown has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 more than he's tallied overall this year on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Jaylen Brown will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens stat production for all stats.

Kristaps Porzingis has been called for 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's been called for in all games this year. The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs vs. Kel'el Ware has been quite low this year (2.6 foul shots per game: 23rd percentile).

Andrew Wiggins has put up 21.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.0 more than he's put up in all games this season. Andrew Wiggins has been on the court for 34.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 6.7 three attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, marking this as a positive matchup. Compared to last year's 72.3% clip, Andrew Wiggins's foul-shot proficiency has jumped this year to 81.9%.

The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Relative to last season's 90.7% mark, Derrick White's foul-shot ability has tailed off this season to 81.8%. Derrick White ought to suffer a drop-off in output in all stat categories as a result of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

The matchup vs. the Boston Celtics is a challenging one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the league to opposing starting PFs this year (14.5). The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics). The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Boston is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted just 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Celtics are on the road (8th-least in the NBA).

The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics). The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Jayson Tatum will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases stat production for all stats.

The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics). The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

Kel'el Ware has sunk 59.4% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 5.4% higher than he's sunk overall this year when playing at home. Kel'el Ware has averaged 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 11.0 more than he's averaged over the course of the year at home. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Kel'el Ware has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 24.6% more than he's made overall this season. Kel'el Ware figures to see a rise in productivity for all stats as a result of possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on three-pointers (highest in the league) vs. the Heat, making this a favorable matchup. Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Al Horford has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 10.0% more than he's made overall this year.