LIVE 10:13 1st Apr 27
BOS 2 -7.5 o199.0
ORL 5 7.5 u199.0
IND 4.0 o227.0
MIL -4.0 u227.0
Final Apr 27
NY 94 2.5 o216.0
DET 93 -2.5 u216.0
Final Apr 27
LAL 113 2.5 o209.0
MIN 116 -2.5 u209.0
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45
Atlanta 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE40-42

Miami @ Atlanta picks

State Farm Arena

MIA vs ATL Picks

NBA Picks
Total Rebounds
M. Gueye o3.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 4.4 (Over)
Best Odds
o3.5 +136 fanduel
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 +115
3.5 -150
3.5 +120
3.5 -167
3.5 +136
3.5 -174

Mouhamed Gueye has tallied 1.4 offensive boards per game over the last 7 games, 0.6 more than he's tallied in all games this year. The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA while at home this year. The Hawks have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Mouhamed Gueye figures to see an increase in productivity in all facets of the game on account of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Points Scored
D. Mitchell o7.5 Points Scored
Projection 9.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 +100 betmgm
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
7.5 +100
7.5 -135
7.5 -130
7.5 -103
7.5 -125
7.5 -109
7.5 -125
7.5 -102

Davion Mitchell has sunk 51.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games on the road, 10.5% higher than he's converted over the course of the year while playing on the road. Davion Mitchell has sunk 56.5% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games on the road, 15.5% more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season on the road. Davion Mitchell has played 32.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.4 higher than he's played over the course of the year. When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA when playing on the road over the last 25 games has been the Miami Heat. The matchup vs. Atlanta is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Hawks are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have totaled the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (7.6).

Total Assists
C. LeVert o2.5 Total Assists
Projection 3.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o2.5 -115 bet365
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
2.5 -115
2.5 -115
2.5 -125
2.5 -105
2.5 -133
2.5 -103

The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA while at home this year. The Hawks have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Caris LeVert will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court tends to boost player production for all stats.

Points Scored
T. Young u28.5 Points Scored
Projection 24.2 (Under)
Best Odds
u28.5 -150 betmgm
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
28.5 +115
28.5 -150
26.5 -125
26.5 -107
27.5 -103
27.5 -133
26.5 -125
26.5 -105
26.5 -125
26.5 -102

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Atlanta Hawks.

Total Assists
D. Mitchell o4.5 Total Assists
Projection 6.4 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 -135 bet365
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
4.5 -135
4.5 +105
4.5 -155
4.5 +115
4.5 -148
4.5 +112
4.5 -154
4.5 +112
4.5 -148
4.5 +116

Davion Mitchell has totaled 4.5 assists per game when playing away from home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile -- among the NBA's best by this metric. Davion Mitchell has played 32.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.4 higher than he's played over the course of the year. The Hawks have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the league in their home city this year, which should increase possessions for the Miami Heat.

Points Scored
M. Gueye o4.5 Points Scored
Projection 6.2 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 -128 fanduel
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
4.5 -140
4.5 +105
4.5 -137
4.5 +100
4.5 -135
4.5 +105
4.5 -128
4.5 +100

The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for 3-pointers; the opposition's starting PFs have shot for the 2nd-highest three percentage in the league this year (43.4%). The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA while at home this year. The Hawks have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Mouhamed Gueye has sunk 100.0% of his free throws with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among all players in the NBA. Mouhamed Gueye figures to see an increase in productivity in all facets of the game on account of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Total Rebounds
A. Wiggins o5.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 6.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 +112 fanduel
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
5.5 +100
5.5 -135
5.5 -107
5.5 -125
5.5 +100
5.5 -137
5.5 +100
5.5 -130
5.5 +112
5.5 -142

Andrew Wiggins has totaled 2.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 higher than he's totaled overall this season. Andrew Wiggins has played 36.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.5 more than he's played in all games this season on the road. The Hawks have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the league in their home city this year, which should increase possessions for the Miami Heat.

Points Scored
Z. Risacher o12.5 Points Scored
Projection 14.4 (Over)
Best Odds
o12.5 -115 draftkings
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
12.5 -120
12.5 -110
12.5 -124
12.5 -108
12.5 -125
12.5 -109
12.5 -115
12.5 -115
12.5 -125
12.5 -102

Zaccharie Risacher has made 58.7% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 29.2% more than he's made from beyond the arc in all games this season. The matchup against Miami is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Heat are the visiting team, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8). The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA while at home this year. The Hawks have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists). Zaccharie Risacher has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 24.1% more than he's made in all games this year.

Total Rebounds
T. Herro o5.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 6.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 +110 draftkings
Projection updated: 62 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
5.5 -110
5.5 -120
5.5 -114
5.5 -117
5.5 +100
5.5 -137
5.5 +110
5.5 -140
5.5 +102
5.5 -130

Tyler Herro has compiled 5.2 defensive rebounds per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 91st percentile. Tyler Herro has played 35.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 96th percentile. The Hawks have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the league in their home city this year, which should increase possessions for the Miami Heat.

MIA vs ATL Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

67% picking Atlanta

33%
67%

Total Picks MIA 192, ATL 388

Spread
MIA
ATL
Total

63% picking Miami vs Atlanta to go Over

63%
38%

Total PicksMIA 240, ATL 144

Total
Over
Under

MIA vs ATL Top User Picks

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User Picks

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