Final Apr 23
ORL 100 10.0 o196.0
BOS 109 -10.0 u196.0
Final Apr 23
MIA 112 12.0 o213.0
CLE 121 -12.0 u213.0
Final Apr 23
GS 94 4.0 o204.5
HOU 109 -4.0 u204.5
Sacramento 9th WESTERN CONFERENCE40-42
Dallas 10th WESTERN CONFERENCE39-43

Sacramento @ Dallas props

American Airlines Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Naji Marshall Points Scored Props • Dallas

N. Marshall
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.5
Best Odds
Over
-105

Relative to last season's 7.2 mark, Naji Marshall's points per game have spiked this season to 11.0. Naji Marshall has been on the court for 30.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 5.0 higher than he's been on the court for over the course of the season at home. The Mavericks have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games. Naji Marshall will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally raises player performance for all stats.

Naji Marshall

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.5
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.5

Relative to last season's 7.2 mark, Naji Marshall's points per game have spiked this season to 11.0. Naji Marshall has been on the court for 30.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 5.0 higher than he's been on the court for over the course of the season at home. The Mavericks have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games. Naji Marshall will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally raises player performance for all stats.

Dwight Powell Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Powell
center C • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Points Scored
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
5.5 Points Scored
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Dwight Powell ranks in the 12th percentile for playing time, posting a mere 8.1 minutes per game this year. The 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Mavericks. The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Dwight Powell

Prop: 5.5 Points Scored
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
5.5 Points Scored
Projection:
3.8

Out of all players in the league, Dwight Powell ranks in the 12th percentile for playing time, posting a mere 8.1 minutes per game this year. The 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Mavericks. The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Keon Ellis Points Scored Props • Sacramento

K. Ellis
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-118
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.5
Best Odds
Over
-118
Projection Rating

Keon Ellis has converted 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the season when playing on the road. Keon Ellis has played 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 5.7 higher than he's played in all games this season on the road. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. Keon Ellis has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 17.9% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

Keon Ellis

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.5
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.5

Keon Ellis has converted 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the season when playing on the road. Keon Ellis has played 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 5.7 higher than he's played in all games this season on the road. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. Keon Ellis has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 17.9% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

Jonas Valančiūnas Points Scored Props • Sacramento

J. Valančiūnas
center C • Sacramento
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.6
Best Odds
Over
-115

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 63.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 7.6% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year. Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 100.0% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games on the road, 72.7% higher than he's made overall this season when playing away from home. When squaring off against fellow starting Cs, Dwight Powell slots into the 97th percentile with a massive 11.7 shots from the field against him per game this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. The faceoff with Dwight Powell as it relates to getting to the foul line rates in just the 89th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting a massive 3.8 foul shots per game this year when they are playing on the road.

Jonas Valančiūnas

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.6
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.6

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 63.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 7.6% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year. Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 100.0% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games on the road, 72.7% higher than he's made overall this season when playing away from home. When squaring off against fellow starting Cs, Dwight Powell slots into the 97th percentile with a massive 11.7 shots from the field against him per game this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. The faceoff with Dwight Powell as it relates to getting to the foul line rates in just the 89th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting a massive 3.8 foul shots per game this year when they are playing on the road.

Kyrie Irving Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Irving
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
29.5
Points Scored
Projection
27.5
Best Odds
Under
-120

The matchup vs. Sacramento is a challenging one; when the Sacramento Kings are on the road, they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs this year (15.2). The 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Mavericks. The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Sacramento is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 3.3 foul shots per game this year when the Sacramento Kings are the visiting squad (8th-least in the NBA).

Kyrie Irving

Prop: 29.5 Points Scored
Projection: 27.5
Prop:
29.5 Points Scored
Projection:
27.5

The matchup vs. Sacramento is a challenging one; when the Sacramento Kings are on the road, they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs this year (15.2). The 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Mavericks. The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Sacramento is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 3.3 foul shots per game this year when the Sacramento Kings are the visiting squad (8th-least in the NBA).

Dante Exum Points Scored Props • Dallas

D. Exum
point guard PG • Dallas
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.9
Best Odds
Over
-120

Among all players in the NBA, Dante Exum measures in the 92nd percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a stellar 41.2% rate this year. The Mavericks have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a strong one; they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs this year (18.1). Dante Exum has made 83.3% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 10.8% more than he's sunk over the course of the season. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (highest in the league) against the Kings, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Dante Exum

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.9
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.9

Among all players in the NBA, Dante Exum measures in the 92nd percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a stellar 41.2% rate this year. The Mavericks have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a strong one; they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs this year (18.1). Dante Exum has made 83.3% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 10.8% more than he's sunk over the course of the season. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (highest in the league) against the Kings, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Zach LaVine Points Scored Props • Sacramento

Z. LaVine
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.1
Best Odds
Over
-106

Zach LaVine has made 10.0 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's sunk overall this year. Zach LaVine has made an impressive 41.1% of his attempts from downtown this season, significantly more than his 32.3 mark last season. Among all players in the NBA, Zach LaVine ranks in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.6 minutes per game this year. This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 2.8 threes per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, resulting in a strong matchup. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Zach LaVine

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.1
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.1

Zach LaVine has made 10.0 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's sunk overall this year. Zach LaVine has made an impressive 41.1% of his attempts from downtown this season, significantly more than his 32.3 mark last season. Among all players in the NBA, Zach LaVine ranks in the 94th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 34.6 minutes per game this year. This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 2.8 threes per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, resulting in a strong matchup. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Max Christie Points Scored Props • Dallas

M. Christie
shooting guard SG • Dallas
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.1
Best Odds
Over
-125

Max Christie has attempted 10.3 field goals per game over the last 10 games, 3.3 more than he's attempted overall this season. The Mavericks have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a strong one; they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs this year (18.1). Max Christie has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.0% more than he's converted overall this season. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (highest in the league) against the Kings, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Max Christie

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.1
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.1

Max Christie has attempted 10.3 field goals per game over the last 10 games, 3.3 more than he's attempted overall this season. The Mavericks have been the 4th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a strong one; they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting SGs this year (18.1). Max Christie has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.0% more than he's converted overall this season. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (highest in the league) against the Kings, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Klay Thompson Points Scored Props • Dallas

K. Thompson
small forward SF • Dallas
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.1
Best Odds
Under
-110

The 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Mavericks. The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Klay Thompson

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.1
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.1

The 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should reduce possessions for the Mavericks. The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Keegan Murray Points Scored Props • Sacramento

K. Murray
power forward PF • Sacramento
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.1
Best Odds
Under
-115

Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray lands in the 86th percentile for personal fouls, posting a massive 2.5 fouls per game away from home this year. When it comes to treys, the Kings's subpar 33.2% rate of made threes while playing away from home settles in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 7th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Sacramento Kings. The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.5 free throws per game this year when the Mavericks are on their home court (3rd-least in the NBA).

Keegan Murray

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.1
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.1

Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray lands in the 86th percentile for personal fouls, posting a massive 2.5 fouls per game away from home this year. When it comes to treys, the Kings's subpar 33.2% rate of made threes while playing away from home settles in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year. The Kings have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 7th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Sacramento Kings. The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.5 free throws per game this year when the Mavericks are on their home court (3rd-least in the NBA).

Malik Monk Points Scored Props • Sacramento

M. Monk
shooting guard SG • Sacramento
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.2
Best Odds
Over
-115

Malik Monk has attempted 6.8 treys per game this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the league. Malik Monk has played 38.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.0 more than he's played in all games this season on the road. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. Malik Monk has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 11.7% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.

Malik Monk

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.2
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.2

Malik Monk has attempted 6.8 treys per game this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the league. Malik Monk has played 38.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 5.0 more than he's played in all games this season on the road. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. Malik Monk has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 11.7% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.

DeMar DeRozan Points Scored Props • Sacramento

D. DeRozan
small forward SF • Sacramento
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.7
Best Odds
Over
-125

DeMar DeRozan has converted 46.1% of his three-point attempts over the last 10 games, 12.7% more than he's converted from downtown overall this year. Among all players in the league, DeMar DeRozan slots into the 97th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 35.9 minutes per game this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. DeMar DeRozan has converted 7.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 higher than he's made in all games this season. Over the last 17 games when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 3.5 foul shots per game (8th-highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, easily managing to get to the foul line.

DeMar DeRozan

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.7
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.7

DeMar DeRozan has converted 46.1% of his three-point attempts over the last 10 games, 12.7% more than he's converted from downtown overall this year. Among all players in the league, DeMar DeRozan slots into the 97th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 35.9 minutes per game this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Kings rank 6th-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. DeMar DeRozan has converted 7.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 higher than he's made in all games this season. Over the last 17 games when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 3.5 foul shots per game (8th-highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, easily managing to get to the foul line.

Trey Lyles Points Scored Props • Sacramento

T. Lyles
power forward PF • Sacramento
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.51
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Over
-130
Under
+102
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Season Avg.
6.51
Best Odds
Over
-130
Under
+102

Trey Lyles has gone over 6.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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