Dallas @ San Antonio picks

Stephon Castle has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's averaged over the course of the season. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs grade out 6thworst in in the league as the home team with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The matchup against the Mavericks is a challenging one; they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the league to opposing starting SFs over the last 15 games (11.4). Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs grade out 6thworst in in the league as the home team with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games. The matchup against Dallas is a hard one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a measly 1.6 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are the visiting squad (2nd-least in the league).

Chris Paul has been on the court for 28.9 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league. The 7th-speediest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Spurs. The Mavericks have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the San Antonio Spurs. Chris Paul figures to see a rise in output across the board as a result of holding the home court advantage in this game.

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 4thworst in in the league with a mere 9.0 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games. Naji Marshall figures to suffer a drop-off in output across the board on account of playing away from home in this contest.

Chris Paul has made 68.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 25.7% more than he's sunk in all games this year. Chris Paul has successfully made 64.2% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games at home, 23.8% more than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season with the home court advantage. Chris Paul has been on the court for 28.9 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league. In regard to offense, the San Antonio Spurs's remarkable 124.4 points per game comes in as the 2nd-most in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup against Dallas is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Dallas Mavericks are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the 9th-most treys per game in the league this year (2.4).