Houston @ Miami picks

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has converted 51.7% of his three-point shots over the last 15 games at home, 12.0% higher than he's converted from three in all games this season playing at home. As it relates to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's terrific 38.1% rate of converted threes while at home places 5th-most in the league over the last 25 games. This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 2.4 3-pointers per game (3rd-highest in the league) vs. the Houston Rockets, making this a favorable matchup. Jaime Jaquez Jr. ought to see an increase in performance across the board due to owning the home court advantage in this game.

Tari Eason has compiled 3.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 0.9 higher than he's compiled in all games this season on the road. Tari Eason has averaged 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.8 more than he's averaged in all games this season. The Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Fred VanVleet has converted 3.3 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.6 more than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the year when playing away from home. Out of all players in the league, Fred VanVleet rates in the 96th percentile for playing time, putting up a colossal 35.2 minutes per game this year. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PGs have totaled 23.1 points per game (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, marking this as a good matchup for offensive output. The Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists). Fred VanVleet has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 14.6% higher than he's made over the course of the year when playing on the road.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has averaged 2.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's averaged in all games this year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. ought to see an increase in performance across the board due to owning the home court advantage in this game.

Andrew Wiggins has put up 1.5 offensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the league leaders by this metric recently. Among all players in the league, Andrew Wiggins slots into the 82nd percentile for playing time, registering a monstrous 30.8 minutes per game this year. Andrew Wiggins figures to see a rise in effectiveness in all stat categories due to holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Kel'el Ware has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's committed in all games this season. The least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-least up-tempo tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Rockets). The Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson has successfully made 3.5 three-point shots per game over the last 15 games at home, 0.6 more than he's converted over the course of the season playing at home. As it relates to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's terrific 38.1% rate of converted threes while at home places 5th-most in the league over the last 25 games. This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 2.4 3-pointers per game (3rd-highest in the league) vs. the Houston Rockets, making this a favorable matchup. Duncan Robinson has failed to make 0.1 foul shot attempts per game while at home this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this standard: 21st percentile for misses at home. Duncan Robinson will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court tends to improve stat production in all stat categories.

Out of all players in the league, Kel'el Ware ranks in the 18th percentile for 3-point prowess with a lackluster 25.4% rate this year. Kel'el Ware has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's committed in all games this season. The matchup vs. Alperen Sengun is a difficult one; he has given up a mere 11.1 points per game when facing fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 8th-least up-tempo tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Rockets).

Davion Mitchell has successfully made 51.6% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 8.1% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year. Davion Mitchell has made 42.0% of his 3-pointers this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among all players in the league. Davion Mitchell has averaged 30.6 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 4.3 higher than he's averaged in all games this season. As it relates to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's terrific 38.1% rate of converted threes while at home places 5th-most in the league over the last 25 games. This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 45.5% on shots from the field (9th-highest in the NBA) against the Houston Rockets, designating this as a positive matchup.