Final Apr 27
NY 94 2.5 o216.0
DET 93 -2.5 u216.0
Final Apr 27
LAL 113 2.5 o209.0
MIN 116 -2.5 u209.0
Final Apr 27
BOS 107 -7.5 o199.0
ORL 98 7.5 u199.0
Final Apr 27
IND 129 4.0 o226.5
MIL 103 -4.0 u226.5
Memphis 8th WESTERN CONFERENCE48-34
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45

Memphis @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jaylen Wells Points Scored Props • Memphis

J. Wells
shooting guard SG • Memphis
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.5
Best Odds
Over
+106
Prop
8.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.5
Best Odds
Over
+106
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Jaylen Wells comes in at the 78th percentile for 3-point attempts, registering 5.0 per game this year. This year, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in a strong matchup. The rate of three-point shots hit against Pelle Larsson has been remarkably high (44.2%) when he is playing at home and defending opposing starting SFs this year (100th percentile). The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Jaylen Wells

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.5
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.5

Among all players in the NBA, Jaylen Wells comes in at the 78th percentile for 3-point attempts, registering 5.0 per game this year. This year, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 12.2 field goal attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in a strong matchup. The rate of three-point shots hit against Pelle Larsson has been remarkably high (44.2%) when he is playing at home and defending opposing starting SFs this year (100th percentile). The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Ja Morant Points Scored Props • Memphis

J. Morant
point guard PG • Memphis
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.9
Best Odds
Under
-120

Ja Morant has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 1.0 higher than he's been called for over the course of the season on the road. The Grizzlies are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the slowest pace home offense in the NBA this year (the Heat). Ja Morant will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower player performance across the board.

Ja Morant

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.9
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.9

Ja Morant has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 1.0 higher than he's been called for over the course of the season on the road. The Grizzlies are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the slowest pace home offense in the NBA this year (the Heat). Ja Morant will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower player performance across the board.

Santi Aldama Points Scored Props • Memphis

S. Aldama
power forward PF • Memphis
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.4
Best Odds
Over
-115

Among all players in the NBA, Santi Aldama comes in at the 76th percentile for shots sunk on the road, registering an enormous 4.8 per game this year. Santi Aldama has attempted 6.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's attempted over the course of the year. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. Santi Aldama has attempted 2.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games away from home, 1.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road.

Santi Aldama

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.4
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.4

Among all players in the NBA, Santi Aldama comes in at the 76th percentile for shots sunk on the road, registering an enormous 4.8 per game this year. Santi Aldama has attempted 6.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's attempted over the course of the year. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. Santi Aldama has attempted 2.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games away from home, 1.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.9
Best Odds
Under
-114

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league as the home team this year. The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.9
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.9

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league as the home team this year. The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Alec Burks Points Scored Props • Miami

A. Burks
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.9
Best Odds
Over
-125
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.9
Best Odds
Over
-125
Projection Rating

Alec Burks has logged 12.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 higher than he's logged over the course of the year. Alec Burks has successfully made 3.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Alec Burks measures in the 12th percentile for personal fouls, registering a measly 0.7 fouls per game this year. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat.

Alec Burks

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.9
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.9

Alec Burks has logged 12.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 higher than he's logged over the course of the year. Alec Burks has successfully made 3.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the year. Out of all players in the league, Alec Burks measures in the 12th percentile for personal fouls, registering a measly 0.7 fouls per game this year. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
26
Best Odds
Over
-108

Tyler Herro has registered 27.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.9 more than he's registered over the course of the year. Tyler Herro has averaged 35.6 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 97th percentile. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat. Tyler Herro has successfully made 5.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 26
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
26

Tyler Herro has registered 27.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.9 more than he's registered over the course of the year. Tyler Herro has averaged 35.6 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 97th percentile. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat. Tyler Herro has successfully made 5.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.

Davion Mitchell Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Mitchell
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.4
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

Davion Mitchell has made 63.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 9.2% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season playing at home. Davion Mitchell has converted 2.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's sunk in all games this year. Davion Mitchell has tallied 34.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat.

Davion Mitchell

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.4
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.4

Davion Mitchell has made 63.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 9.2% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season playing at home. Davion Mitchell has converted 2.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's sunk in all games this year. Davion Mitchell has tallied 34.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat.

Kel'el Ware Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Ware
center C • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.2
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
12.5 Points Scored
Projection
13.2
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Kel'el Ware has sunk 63.7% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 9.6% more than he's converted overall this season. Kel'el Ware has been on the court for 28.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.8 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat. Kel'el Ware is expected to see a spike in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

Kel'el Ware

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.2
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.2

Kel'el Ware has sunk 63.7% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 9.6% more than he's converted overall this season. Kel'el Ware has been on the court for 28.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.8 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat. Kel'el Ware is expected to see a spike in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

Desmond Bane Points Scored Props • Memphis

D. Bane
shooting guard SG • Memphis
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
19
Best Odds
Over
+102

Desmond Bane has successfully made 3.0 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 0.7 more than he's made from three overall this season. Among all players in the NBA, Desmond Bane registers in the 85th percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 31.7 minutes per game this year. This year, opposing starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, branding this as a strong matchup. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Desmond Bane

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19

Desmond Bane has successfully made 3.0 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 0.7 more than he's made from three overall this season. Among all players in the NBA, Desmond Bane registers in the 85th percentile for playing time, registering a whopping 31.7 minutes per game this year. This year, opposing starting SGs have totaled 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, branding this as a strong matchup. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Jaren Jackson Points Scored Props • Memphis

J. Jackson
center C • Memphis
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
20
Best Odds
Over
-114

Jaren Jackson Jr. has made an impressive 50.2% of his field goals this season, a significant increase from his 44.1 rate last season. Jaren Jackson Jr. has tallied 29.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 78th percentile. The matchup vs. Miami is a good one for threes; when the Heat are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (46.4%). The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Jaren Jackson

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20

Jaren Jackson Jr. has made an impressive 50.2% of his field goals this season, a significant increase from his 44.1 rate last season. Jaren Jackson Jr. has tallied 29.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 78th percentile. The matchup vs. Miami is a good one for threes; when the Heat are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the highest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (46.4%). The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.

Pelle Larsson Points Scored Props • Miami

P. Larsson
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.6
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
10.6
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Pelle Larsson has sunk 63.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 25.6% more than he's sunk over the course of the season. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat. Pelle Larsson has successfully made 90.0% of his free throws over the last 15 games at home, 14.8% higher than he's made over the course of the season while on his home court. Pelle Larsson will likely see a spike in production across the board due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Pelle Larsson

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.6
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.6

Pelle Larsson has sunk 63.3% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games, 25.6% more than he's sunk over the course of the season. When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's impressive 48.8% rate of successful threes measures as the highest in the league over the last 5 games. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should lead to increased possessions for the Heat. Pelle Larsson has successfully made 90.0% of his free throws over the last 15 games at home, 14.8% higher than he's made over the course of the season while on his home court. Pelle Larsson will likely see a spike in production across the board due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Zach Edey Points Scored Props • Memphis

Z. Edey
center C • Memphis
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.5
Best Odds
Over
-105

Zach Edey has successfully made 100.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games, 63.0% more than he's made from three in all games this season. When playing at home and squaring off against fellow starting Cs, Kel'el Ware places in the 87th percentile with a monstrous 2.4 three-point shots attempted against him per game this year. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. Zach Edey has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 25.8% more than he's made in all games this year away from his home court.

Zach Edey

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.5
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.5

Zach Edey has successfully made 100.0% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games, 63.0% more than he's made from three in all games this season. When playing at home and squaring off against fellow starting Cs, Kel'el Ware places in the 87th percentile with a monstrous 2.4 three-point shots attempted against him per game this year. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the league this year. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies rank best in in the NBA away from home with 14.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games. Zach Edey has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games on the road, 25.8% more than he's made in all games this year away from his home court.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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