CHI 10.5 o48.5
DET -10.5 u48.5
NYG 3.5 o37.5
DAL -3.5 u37.5
MIA 3.0 o47.5
GB -3.0 u47.5
LV 13.0 o42.5
KC -13.0 u42.5
LAC -1.0 o48.0
ATL 1.0 u48.0
ARI 3.5 o44.5
MIN -3.5 u44.5
IND -2.5 o42.0
NE 2.5 u42.0
SEA -1.0 o41.5
NYJ 1.0 u41.5
PIT 2.5 o47.0
CIN -2.5 u47.0
TEN 5.5 o45.0
WAS -5.5 u45.0
HOU -5.0 o43.5
JAC 5.0 u43.5
LA -3.0 o49.0
NO 3.0 u49.0
TB -5.5 o46.5
CAR 5.5 u46.5
PHI 3.5 o51.0
BAL -3.5 u51.0
SF 7.0 o44.5
BUF -7.0 u44.5
CLE 5.5 o41.5
DEN -5.5 u41.5
Pittsburgh 3rd AFC North10-7
Indianapolis 3rd AFC South9-8
NFL

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis props

Lucas Oil Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Diontae Johnson Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

D. Johnson
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.8
Best Odds
Over
-137

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. This week, Diontae Johnson is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 8.1 targets. Diontae Johnson's 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 63.2. Diontae Johnson rates as one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Diontae Johnson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.8
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.8

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. This week, Diontae Johnson is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 8.1 targets. Diontae Johnson's 71.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 63.2. Diontae Johnson rates as one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4
Best Odds
Over
-179

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects Pat Freiermuth to earn 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

Pat Freiermuth

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects Pat Freiermuth to earn 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

Jaylen Warren Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.5
Best Odds
Over
-155

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to earn 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. Jaylen Warren's 13.5% Target Share this year conveys an impressive gain in his pass game usage over last year's 6.3% figure. Jaylen Warren's 3.2 adjusted catches per game this year represents a substantial improvement in his receiving prowess over last year's 1.8 mark.

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.5
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.5

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The projections expect Jaylen Warren to earn 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. Jaylen Warren's 13.5% Target Share this year conveys an impressive gain in his pass game usage over last year's 6.3% figure. Jaylen Warren's 3.2 adjusted catches per game this year represents a substantial improvement in his receiving prowess over last year's 1.8 mark.

Michael Pittman Jr. Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

M. Pittman Jr.
wide receiver WR • Indianapolis
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Colts offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, Michael Pittman is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs with 11.2 targets. Michael Pittman's 7.3 adjusted receptions per game this season illustrates a remarkable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 6.2 mark.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.4
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.4

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Colts offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's game, Michael Pittman is projected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs with 11.2 targets. Michael Pittman's 7.3 adjusted receptions per game this season illustrates a remarkable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 6.2 mark.

Zack Moss Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

Z. Moss
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.7
Best Odds
Over
+106

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Colts offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Zack Moss has gone out for more passes this year (47.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (18.5%). Zack Moss's receiving performance has gotten better this year, totaling 2.0 adjusted catches vs a measly 0.5 last year.

Zack Moss

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.7
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.7

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Colts offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Zack Moss has gone out for more passes this year (47.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (18.5%). Zack Moss's receiving performance has gotten better this year, totaling 2.0 adjusted catches vs a measly 0.5 last year.

Kylen Granson Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

K. Granson
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.8
Best Odds
Over
-145

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Colts offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Kylen Granson

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.8
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.8

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Colts offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Indianapolis offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Drew Ogletree Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

D. Ogletree
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
0.5
Receptions Made
Projection
--
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Over
-190
Under
+140
Prop
0.5 Receptions Made
Season Avg.
--
Best Odds
Over
-190
Under
+140

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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