Cleveland @ Cincinnati props

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5.5 points. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league. Joe Mixon's 14.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 21.4. Joe Mixon's receiving performance has declined this year, totaling a measly 3.2 adjusted catches compared to 4.3 last year.

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5.5 points. The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league. Ja'Marr Chase's 6.4 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a noteable decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 7.4 rate. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (54.2%) to wide receivers this year (54.2%).

The Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 66.8% pass rate. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are expected by the predictive model to call 65.7 total plays in this game: the 10th-highest number among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect Tanner Hudson to accumulate 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Tanner Hudson's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, accumulating 3.4 adjusted receptions vs just 1.7 last season.