DAL 10.5 o45.0
WAS -10.5 u45.0
TEN 9.0 o41.0
HOU -9.0 u41.0
NE 7.5 o46.5
MIA -7.5 u46.5
MIN -3.5 o39.0
CHI 3.5 u39.0
KC -11.0 o43.0
CAR 11.0 u43.0
TB -5.5 o41.5
NYG 5.5 u41.5
DET -7.5 o49.5
IND 7.5 u49.5
DEN -6.0 o40.5
LV 6.0 u40.5
SF 2.5 o47.0
GB -2.5 u47.0
ARI 1.0 o48.0
SEA -1.0 u48.0
PHI -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
BAL -3.0 o51.0
LAC 3.0 u51.0
Final Nov 21
PIT 19 -3.5 o37.0
CLE 24 3.5 u37.0
San Francisco 1st NFC West12-5
Kansas City 1st AFC West11-6

San Francisco @ Kansas City props

Allegiant Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Rashee Rice Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

R. Rice
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.2
Best Odds
Over
-105

Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football (68.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume. Our trusted projections expect Rashee Rice to accrue 9.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Rashee Rice checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 5.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Rashee Rice

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.2
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.2

Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football (68.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume. Our trusted projections expect Rashee Rice to accrue 9.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Rashee Rice checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 5.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Made Props • San Francisco

C. McCaffrey
running back RB • San Francisco
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5
Best Odds
Over
-122

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 127.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline. Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (70.8%). In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the model to slot into the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.0 targets. Christian McCaffrey's 4.4 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a remarkable progression in his receiving skills over last year's 3.1 figure.

Christian McCaffrey

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 127.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline. Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (70.8%). In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the model to slot into the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.0 targets. Christian McCaffrey's 4.4 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a remarkable progression in his receiving skills over last year's 3.1 figure.

Deebo Samuel Receptions Made Props • San Francisco

D. Samuel
wide receiver WR • San Francisco
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5
Best Odds
Over
-122

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 127.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline. In this contest, Deebo Samuel is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets. With a stellar 4.1 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel places among the best WRs in the league in the league. Deebo Samuel's 71.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a material growth in his receiving ability over last season's 63.4% mark.

Deebo Samuel

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 127.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline. In this contest, Deebo Samuel is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets. With a stellar 4.1 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel places among the best WRs in the league in the league. Deebo Samuel's 71.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a material growth in his receiving ability over last season's 63.4% mark.

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

I. Pacheco
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.9
Best Odds
Over
-125

Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football (68.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume. Isiah Pacheco has been used more as a potential target this season (46.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (19.3%). The projections expect Isiah Pacheco to earn 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Isiah Pacheco

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.9
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.9

Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football (68.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume. Isiah Pacheco has been used more as a potential target this season (46.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (19.3%). The projections expect Isiah Pacheco to earn 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs.

George Kittle Receptions Made Props • San Francisco

G. Kittle
tight end TE • San Francisco
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4
Best Odds
Over
-145

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 127.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline. With a high 88.9% Route% (99th percentile) this year, George Kittle stands as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football. In this week's game, George Kittle is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 80th percentile among TEs with 6.0 targets. With a terrific 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in football.

George Kittle

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 127.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline. With a high 88.9% Route% (99th percentile) this year, George Kittle stands as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in football. In this week's game, George Kittle is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 80th percentile among TEs with 6.0 targets. With a terrific 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in football.

Travis Kelce Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.5
Best Odds
Over
-141

Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football (68.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume. The projections expect Travis Kelce to earn 10.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With a terrific 6.6 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce places as one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.5
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.5

Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football (68.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume. The projections expect Travis Kelce to earn 10.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With a terrific 6.6 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce places as one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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