Kansas City 1st AFC West15-2
Pittsburgh 2nd AFC North10-7
Netflix

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh props

Acrisure Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

George Pickens Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.9
Best Odds
Over
+112

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.1 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. The projections expect George Pickens to accumulate 8.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the shaky Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.

George Pickens

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.9
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.9

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.1 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. The projections expect George Pickens to accumulate 8.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the shaky Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.

Travis Kelce Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.6
Best Odds
Over
-160

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.9% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 134.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 61.6 per game on average). Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accrue 8.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Travis Kelce

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.6
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.6

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.9% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 134.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 61.6 per game on average). Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accrue 8.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Isiah Pacheco Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

I. Pacheco
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Over
+104
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Over
+104
Projection Rating

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.9% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 134.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 61.6 per game on average). Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. With an impressive 8.7% Target Rate (75th percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco has been among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the league.

Isiah Pacheco

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.7
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.7

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.9% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 134.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 61.6 per game on average). Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. With an impressive 8.7% Target Rate (75th percentile) this year, Isiah Pacheco has been among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the league.

Jaylen Warren Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Over
-129

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.1 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. In this game, Jaylen Warren is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets. Jaylen Warren rates in the 84th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 15.8 figure this year.

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.1 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. In this game, Jaylen Warren is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets. Jaylen Warren rates in the 84th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 15.8 figure this year.

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Over
-205

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.1 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. With an excellent 3.4 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth places among the top pass-game tight ends in the league. This year, the shaky Chiefs pass defense has been torched for a colossal 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

Pat Freiermuth

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have 134.2 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.1 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. With an excellent 3.4 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth places among the top pass-game tight ends in the league. This year, the shaky Chiefs pass defense has been torched for a colossal 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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