Washington @ Cincinnati props

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 28.69 seconds per snap, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most sluggish in football (in a neutral context) at the present time. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.2 per game) since the start of last season. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Cincinnati's CB corps has been great since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Bengals. With a poor 75.0% Adjusted Completion% (24th percentile) since the start of last season, Zack Moss has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 63.4% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL. In this game, Mike Gesicki is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.7 targets. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's collection of LBs has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Bengals.

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume. The model projects Zach Ertz to total 4.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among TEs. Zach Ertz's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for TEs. Zach Ertz has been one of the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 28.69 seconds per snap, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 4th-most sluggish in football (in a neutral context) at the present time. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.2 per game) since the start of last season. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's collection of LBs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.