Cleveland @ Washington props

A running game script is indicated by the Browns being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. Amari Cooper's 92.9% snap rate this year conveys a remarkable progression in his offensive volume over last year's 82.5% rate. The Browns O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board. Amari Cooper's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates an impressive decrease in his receiving talent over last year's 4.8 mark. Amari Cooper's 44.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 59.0% figure.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Commanders to pass on 51.8% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play. The Browns pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (55.7%) versus WRs this year (55.7%).

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. Zach Ertz has run a route on 81.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs. The model projects Zach Ertz to earn 4.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the best in football this year. Zach Ertz checks in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a fantastic 3.8 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.03 seconds per play. In this game, David Njoku is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.

The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.03 seconds per play. The predictive model expects Jerome Ford to total 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs. Jerome Ford's 4.2 adjusted catches per game this year signifies a significant progression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 2.6 mark. Since the start of last season, the poor Commanders pass defense has given up a monstrous 83.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 10th-largest rate in the NFL.

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. Brian Robinson has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (47.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (33.5%). As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the best in football this year. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Cleveland's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 9th-worst in football.