Cincinnati @ New York props

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 63.4% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect Mike Gesicki to garner 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Mike Gesicki's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 18.9. Mike Gesicki's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 3.4 adjusted receptions vs a mere 2.0 last year. This year, the weak New York Giants pass defense has been torched for a colossal 94.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the worst rate in football.

The model projects the Giants to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 63.4% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 96th percentile among WRs with 9.3 targets. Ja'Marr Chase comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 5.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile. Ja'Marr Chase's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 71.2% to 83.9%. This year, the poor New York Giants pass defense has surrendered a colossal 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst rate in football.

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs. The New York Giants have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.8 plays per game. This week, Wan'Dale Robinson is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 9.6 targets. Wan'Dale Robinson's 28.2% Target% this year conveys a noteable improvement in his pass game utilization over last year's 18.5% figure. The Bengals pass defense has been gouged for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.1%) versus WRs this year (66.1%).

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 63.4% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week. Zack Moss's 56.8% Route Participation% this year shows a material growth in his passing attack workload over last year's 46.2% figure. In this week's contest, Zack Moss is predicted by the projections to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.1 targets. Zack Moss's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, totaling 3.0 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 1.9 last season.

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs. The New York Giants have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.8 plays per game. The Bengals safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending receivers.